đ¨đ¨The Fed Countdown Has Begun: Markets Bet on Three Cuts by Year-End
Forget what Jerome Powell says â the markets are already pricing what he wonât admit yet.
According to CME FedWatch and futures data, the market has mapped out a soft landing scenario with a clear rate-cut trajectory. Hereâs how the expectations unfold:
⢠June 18 â No change. Another pause to âwait and see.â
⢠July 30 â The first 25 bps cut brings rates to 4.00â4.25%
⢠September 17 â Another 25 bps cut, now 3.75â4.00%
⢠October 29 â Third cut in a row, down to 3.50â3.75%
⢠December 10 â Pause again. Time to reassess.
⢠January 28, 2026 â A potential fourth cut, lowering to 3.25â3.50%
⢠March 18, 2026 â Pause (for now).
This roadmap reflects investor belief that inflation will cool, the labor market will loosen, and the Fed will finally shift from defense to stimulus â even if Powell keeps playing the âdata dependentâ card.
But hereâs the twist: these projections arenât forecasts â theyâre bets. Bets placed by traders, funds, and algorithms reading every line from FOMC minutes, Powell speeches, and global macro stress.
To the #AMAGE community:
Will the market be right â again?
Or is this another episode of ârate cut hopiumâ colliding with stubborn inflation?

