One, Core contradiction of the market: The game between positive expectations and technical pressure

Ethereum has positive expectations for upgrades (such as the Cancun upgrade), but its short-term trend is clearly under technical pressure. Today's price fell back after reaching the third resistance level analyzed overnight; currently, it is crucial to focus on the breaking situation of the 1816 pivotal level, which will determine whether the market continues its bullish trend or turns to a pullback.

Two, Bullish and bearish trend analysis and key levels

1. Bullish trend continuation signal (bullish)

- Confirmation conditions: A pullback that does not break below 1816, and a rebound that breaks above the short-term resistance level of 1848.

- Logic: 1816 is the recent pullback low point after the rise; holding this level indicates that the bulls recognize the support strength of positive expectations, and a pullback presents a technical buying opportunity.

- Upward target:

- First target: 1872 (resistance in the dense trading area);

- Second target: 1903 (a key level for mid-term trend, expect a move towards 2000 after a breakout).

2. Short-term pullback risk signal (bearish)

- Confirmation conditions: Break below 1816 (three consecutive hourly K-lines closing below), and rebound is obstructed at this level.

- Logic: After a breakout, a short-term moving average death cross may lead the market to shift from 'expectation game' to 'profit-taking', thus precaution against emotional selling is necessary.

- Downward target:

- First support: 1792 (the lower edge of the consolidation range, neckline of the double bottom structure);

- Second support: 1756 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level);

- Third support: 1730 (previous low, if broken, look to 1700).

Three, Operational strategies and risk control suggestions

Bullish strategy:

- Conditions: Stabilize above 1816, break through 1848;

- Operation: Gradually build long positions on dips, target 1872-1903;

- Risk control: Set a stop loss below 1816, take profit at resistance levels, and control position size within 5%.

Bearish strategy:

- Conditions: Break below 1816, rebound not exceeding this level;

- Operation: Light positions for short or wait and see, target 1792-1756;

- Risk control: Set a stop loss above 1816, take profit at support levels, avoid heavy betting.

Risk Warning:

- Cryptocurrencies are greatly influenced by the realization of positive expectations and market sentiment, beware of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact' trend;

- Closely monitor the progress of upgrade news and changes in trading volume: an increase in volume while breaking resistance may allow for more positions, while an increase in volume breaking support should prompt an accelerated exit.

Four, Summary

The core of Ethereum's short-term trend is the bullish and bearish contention at the 1816 level:

- If it holds, it will rely on positive expectations to continue the rebound, gradually opening up space above;

- If it breaks, the technical pressure will dominate, and caution is needed for a pullback to 1730 or even lower.

In terms of operations, it is recommended to use this level as a risk control anchor point, avoid betting on positive expectations too early, and wait for the trend to clarify before intervening, strictly adhering to the principles of 'light positions, stop-loss, and following the trend.'$ETH #ETH走势分析