I. Bull-Bear Watershed and Key Points
1. Support Structure Below
- Core Support: 98500 is the 'heart zone' of today's trend — if the price quickly rebounds after pulling back to this level (e.g., a bullish candlestick engulfing), it is seen as a strong bullish signal, and the market is expected to continue upward; if it effectively breaks down (closing price below this level for two consecutive candlesticks), the small level will enter a correction cycle, and caution against bearish liquidation risk is needed.
- Secondary Support Team:
- Short-Term Buffer: 97730 (intraday oversold support, suitable for short-term low absorption);
- Band Defense: 96850 (lower edge of the fluctuation range, breaking this level may trigger panic selling);
- Medium-Long Term Defense Line: 95800 (support from the 4-hour upward trend line, reference for medium-long term layout).
2. Resistance Ladder Above
- First Resistance Level: 99400 (recent high + psychological round number), if the price touches this level and then shows a pullback (e.g., long upper shadow candlestick), be cautious of a small technical pullback; if there is a breakout with significant volume (volume increased by more than 20% compared to the previous day), it will open up upward space, aiming for the 100,000 mark.
- Progressive Resistance Targets: After breaking 99400, the upper resistance levels are 100370 (pre-100,000), 101350, 102445 (historical dense trading area), and need to pay attention to whether the volume continues to cooperate as it approaches.
II. Bull-Bear Scenario Simulation and Practical Strategies
Scenario I: Support Valid, Bulls Start Offensive
Confirmation Signal: After the price fluctuates around 98500 in the morning session, breaking through 99000 before 11:00 with a significant increase in trading volume.
Operation Suggestions:
- Aggressive Investors: Gradually build long positions in the range of 98500-98800, with a stop loss set at 98000 (exit if breaking core support), first profit target at 99400; if breaking 99400, move the stop loss up to 99000, second profit target at 100370-101350.
- Conservative Investors: Wait for the price to break through 99400 and confirm with a pullback (such as stabilizing after falling to 99200-99300), then follow up with long positions, targeting 102445, taking profits in batches.
Scenario II: Support Breaks, Bears Dominate
Confirmation Signal: After the price falls below 98500 in the afternoon, the rebound fails to recover this level, and the candlestick remains below 98500 after 15:00, with trading volume significantly increased compared to the previous day.
Operation Suggestions:
- Bullish Risk Control: Those holding long positions should decisively stop loss in the range of 98300-98400 to avoid expanding losses;
- Bearish Opportunities: Try shorting with light positions in the range of 98500-98600 (the rebound height does not exceed 2% of the breakdown point), with a stop loss set at 98900, first profit target at 97730; if breaking down, look down to 96850-95800, and reduce positions at the ultimate support level while keeping a core position.
III. Risk Prevention and Market Observation
1. Position Management Discipline:
- The position of a single transaction should not exceed 15% of total funds, and the cumulative position during the day should not exceed 60%, to avoid the risk of liquidation in extreme market conditions;
- Profitable positions can use the 'trailing stop method' (e.g., move the stop loss up by 200 points for every 500 points increase), locking in floating profits.
2. Key Time Window:
- Key attention to the period from 20:00 to 22:00 during the US market opening, as this period often sees the largest intraday volatility due to capital inflows and outflows;
- Synchronize observation of ETH/BTC exchange rate (if ETH weakens, it may drag down Bitcoin) and the performance of US tech stocks (e.g., Nasdaq Index), to guard against external linkage risks.
3. Key Points of Emotional Game:
- If the price oscillates narrowly in the range of 98500-99400 for more than 5 hours, be cautious of trend reversal risks and consider reducing positions and observing;
- When breaking key points, it is necessary to confirm effectiveness through 'trading volume + closing price' to avoid being misled by false breakouts.
IV. Market Summary and Operational Guidelines
Core Contradiction: Today's market's bull-bear decisive factor focuses on the gains and losses at the 98500 support level, which can be summarized as:
- Conditions for Bullish Dominance: Stabilizing above 98500 and breaking through 99400, the market will attack above the 100,000 mark, suitable for following the trend to go long or holding cash for appreciation;
- Conditions for Bearish Dominance: Falling below 98500 and weak rebounds, corrections may extend to 95800, suitable for shorting on rebounds or holding cash to avoid risks.$BTC #BTC走势分析 
