When 'whales' start to sway, a battle between bulls and bears is about to break out
As of 9 AM on May 7, 2025, Beijing time, the BTC price remains above $97,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2.8%. But don't rush to pop the champagne, this 'crypto roller coaster' script is not that simple. Here’s today’s exclusive analysis:
1. Technicals: Bulls dancing on a tightrope
The current price is stuck in a critical resistance area, as if saying: 'Come here!' The upper band of the Bollinger Band at $100,000 acts like a magnet, attracting the bulls' charge. However, the MACD divergence and negative funding rates suggest that bulls might be getting roasted by 'leveraged retail investors' — once it breaks below $93,000, the bears might directly enter 'firework mode', targeting $89,000.
Technical saying: 'Bull markets die of greed, bear markets perish from fear.' Given the current market, I suggest you weld your stop-loss to the screen and don’t let your wallet turn into 'charity donations.'
2. On-chain data: HODLers' tranquility vs. whales' restlessness
On-chain indicators are as steady as a rock: 88% of BTC holders are still in profit, the MVRV ratio shows the current price is undervalued, long-term players are hoarding coins like crazy, and exchange reserves have dropped to 2016 levels. But the Coinbase Premium Gap has suddenly slid to -5.07, and 'whales' in the U.S. might be quietly offloading, after all, no one wants to miss the 95K-100K resistance zone 'ATM'.
Translated into plain language: The big players shout 'faith' while quietly calculating: 'Should I sell today or tomorrow?'
3. Leverage and ETFs: Institutions entering, retail investors getting in over their heads
Leverage trading volume surged by 200% in 24 hours; retail investors on the XBIT platform are seeing red, as if $100,000 is a 'free lottery ticket.' On the other hand, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.3 billion in a week, with BlackRock and others voting with real money: 'Drop? Not a chance!'.
But be careful! The funding rate for perpetual contracts has turned negative, and historical experience tells us this is either a 'bear trap' or a 'bull graveyard.' It’s advised for leveraged players to chant three times: 'You have to be alive to witness miracles.'
4. Macro Black Swan: The 'blind box' of FOMC and geopolitics
The FOMC decision from the Federal Reserve tonight is comparable to a crypto version of (Squid Game) — hidden nuclear-level volatility expectations under low volatility. With Pakistan and India suddenly exchanging fire, gold is rising, yet BTC remains as stable as a mountain. It seems the crypto market has evolved to: 'War? What does it have to do with my mining?'
Summary: A Survival Guide for Retail Investors
Short-term strategy:
Upper pressure looks at $97,800 - $100,000, and if the breakout fails, consider taking profits.
Watch the support closely at $93,000; a break below could trigger a 'chain explosion firework show.'
Long-term faith:
On-chain data and institutional inflows remain healthy; Standard Chartered even called for 'a push to $120,000 in the second quarter.' Remember, bull markets often crash, but the final destination for HODLers is always the stars and the sea.
Final friendly reminder: The market can be crazy, but your position must be clear-headed. After all, there are no 'regret pills' in the crypto world, only 'stop-loss orders' and 'memes'.
