大饼猎手
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我深耕区块链6年，穿越牛熊周期，专注数据追踪与宏观研判，成功预警LUNA事件，精准预判BTC关键拐点，定期分享机构级投研备忘录和实时交易策略。关注大饼猎手，带你获取财富秘籍！
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如何进行仓位管理？币圈的终极生存指南
作为在币圈摸爬滚打多年的KOL，我见过无数人因盲目梭哈一夜归零，也见证过少数人凭借科学的仓位管理实现财富自由。今天我将结合实战经验与行业底层逻辑，揭秘仓位管理如何成为高收益的底层密码。
#比特币战略储备
一、仓位管理的核心逻辑：风险与收益的平衡术
仓位管理本质上是一场概率游戏，其核心是通过资金分配策略，在不可预测的市场波动中寻找确定性。与传统投资不同，币圈24小时高波动、高杠杆、高风险的特征，让仓位管理的重要性远超技术分析。
三大核心原则必须刻进DNA：
1. 永不满仓：至少保留30%现金应对黑天鹅，熊市抄底、牛市逃顶的子弹都源于此
2. 分批操作：用"蚂蚁搬家"策略摊薄成本，避免单点决策失误导致全军覆没
3. 动态调整：根据市场强弱切换策略，牛市用金字塔吃主升浪，熊市用漏斗型抄底
二、五大实战策略：从青铜到王者的进阶路径
1. 震荡市生存法则——矩形仓位法
将资金均分5-10份，每次等额建仓。例如10万本金分10次入场，每跌5%加仓1万。此策略通过机械式纪律规避情绪干扰，适合比特币横盘期或山寨币震荡行情。
2. 左侧交易神器——漏斗型抄底法
按10%-15%
#比特币战略储备
一、仓位管理的核心逻辑：风险与收益的平衡术
仓位管理本质上是一场概率游戏，其核心是通过资金分配策略，在不可预测的市场波动中寻找确定性。与传统投资不同，币圈24小时高波动、高杠杆、高风险的特征，让仓位管理的重要性远超技术分析。
三大核心原则必须刻进DNA：
1. 永不满仓：至少保留30%现金应对黑天鹅，熊市抄底、牛市逃顶的子弹都源于此
2. 分批操作：用"蚂蚁搬家"策略摊薄成本，避免单点决策失误导致全军覆没
3. 动态调整：根据市场强弱切换策略，牛市用金字塔吃主升浪，熊市用漏斗型抄底
二、五大实战策略：从青铜到王者的进阶路径
1. 震荡市生存法则——矩形仓位法
将资金均分5-10份，每次等额建仓。例如10万本金分10次入场，每跌5%加仓1万。此策略通过机械式纪律规避情绪干扰，适合比特币横盘期或山寨币震荡行情。
2. 左侧交易神器——漏斗型抄底法
按10%-15%
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Insights from Black Swan Events in the Crypto Circle: Finding Survival Rules from Historical Blood and Tears
Author: Big Pie Hunter
Introduction: The Fate of Black Swans and the Resilience of the Coin Circle
Since its inception, the cryptocurrency market has been accompanied by 'black swan events'. These unpredictable catastrophic shocks have exposed the industry's vulnerabilities while also driving ecological iteration and upgrading. This article will provide a professional perspective, combining historical cases with the latest developments in 2025, to analyze the core causes, market impacts, and response strategies of black swan events, offering investors a deep thinking framework.
1. Typical Patterns and Case Analysis of Black Swan Events
1. Technical Vulnerabilities and Security Crises
Introduction: The Fate of Black Swans and the Resilience of the Coin Circle
Since its inception, the cryptocurrency market has been accompanied by 'black swan events'. These unpredictable catastrophic shocks have exposed the industry's vulnerabilities while also driving ecological iteration and upgrading. This article will provide a professional perspective, combining historical cases with the latest developments in 2025, to analyze the core causes, market impacts, and response strategies of black swan events, offering investors a deep thinking framework.
1. Typical Patterns and Case Analysis of Black Swan Events
1. Technical Vulnerabilities and Security Crises
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The Game Between Federal Reserve Policies and Bitcoin: Key Node Analysis on May 7
From failed rate cut expectations to the risks and opportunities for BTC.
Written by: Bitcoin Hunter
#美联储FOMC会议
$BTC
1. Current status of Federal Reserve policies: the deep logic behind inaction.
In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve announced its latest rate decision, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, which is a highly probable event. Despite repeated pressures from the Trump administration to cut rates to alleviate refinancing pressure on debt (the US needs to refinance $9.2 trillion in debt by 2025), Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that current inflation risks (core PCE rising to 2.5%) and uncertainties in tariff policy force the Fed to remain cautious.
Written by: Bitcoin Hunter
#美联储FOMC会议
$BTC
1. Current status of Federal Reserve policies: the deep logic behind inaction.
In the early hours of today, the Federal Reserve announced its latest rate decision, maintaining the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, which is a highly probable event. Despite repeated pressures from the Trump administration to cut rates to alleviate refinancing pressure on debt (the US needs to refinance $9.2 trillion in debt by 2025), Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated that current inflation risks (core PCE rising to 2.5%) and uncertainties in tariff policy force the Fed to remain cautious.
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May 7 Bitcoin BTC Morning Briefing
When 'whales' start to sway, a battle between bulls and bears is about to break out
$BTC
#美联储FOMC会议
As of 9 AM on May 7, 2025, Beijing time, the BTC price remains above $97,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2.8%. But don't rush to pop the champagne, this 'crypto roller coaster' script is not that simple. Here’s today’s exclusive analysis:
1. Technicals: Bulls dancing on a tightrope
The current price is stuck in a critical resistance area, as if saying: 'Come here!' The upper band of the Bollinger Band at $100,000 acts like a magnet, attracting the bulls' charge. However, the MACD divergence and negative funding rates suggest that bulls might be getting roasted by 'leveraged retail investors' — once it breaks below $93,000, the bears might directly enter 'firework mode', targeting $89,000.
$BTC
#美联储FOMC会议
As of 9 AM on May 7, 2025, Beijing time, the BTC price remains above $97,000, with a 24-hour increase of 2.8%. But don't rush to pop the champagne, this 'crypto roller coaster' script is not that simple. Here’s today’s exclusive analysis:
1. Technicals: Bulls dancing on a tightrope
The current price is stuck in a critical resistance area, as if saying: 'Come here!' The upper band of the Bollinger Band at $100,000 acts like a magnet, attracting the bulls' charge. However, the MACD divergence and negative funding rates suggest that bulls might be getting roasted by 'leveraged retail investors' — once it breaks below $93,000, the bears might directly enter 'firework mode', targeting $89,000.
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In-Depth Analysis of Trump Coin ($TRUMP)
A Crypto Carnival of Politics and Capital
$TRUMP
As a KOL in the crypto circle, I have observed that Trump Coin ($TRUMP ) has become the focus of the crypto market since its inception. It is not only a milestone in the combination of politics and blockchain but also a textbook case of human game-playing and market manipulation. The following analysis covers four aspects: price volatility, underlying logic, investment strategies, and future risks.
I. Price Volatility and Event-Driven: From 'Creating a God' to 'Harvesting Chives' Dramatically
1. Myth of Soaring Prices
Trump Coin opened at $0.18 in January 2025, skyrocketing to $75 within 12 hours, a more than 412-fold increase, with a market capitalization exceeding $80 billion. Its core driving forces include:
$TRUMP
As a KOL in the crypto circle, I have observed that Trump Coin ($TRUMP ) has become the focus of the crypto market since its inception. It is not only a milestone in the combination of politics and blockchain but also a textbook case of human game-playing and market manipulation. The following analysis covers four aspects: price volatility, underlying logic, investment strategies, and future risks.
I. Price Volatility and Event-Driven: From 'Creating a God' to 'Harvesting Chives' Dramatically
1. Myth of Soaring Prices
Trump Coin opened at $0.18 in January 2025, skyrocketing to $75 within 12 hours, a more than 412-fold increase, with a market capitalization exceeding $80 billion. Its core driving forces include:
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Exclusive analysis, not to be missed
May 6th ETH Analysis
ETH Daily Quick Review: After breaking below $1800, is it bottom fishing or escaping?
$ETH
Brothers, on May 6th at 3 PM, ETH is making moves again! I just checked the market, and the price is hovering around $1799, down about 0.1% for the day, but don't underestimate this number; there are hidden currents behind the market.
1. Technical aspects: Support levels are critical, can the bulls hold on?
ETH dipped directly to $1794 early this morning, just one step away from the bear market low of $1750 in 2024. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the MACD histogram has shortened, the KDJ death cross has not been resolved, and there is a clear divergence between price and volume—price is rebounding but trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the bulls are not daring to push. The key short-term support is at $1798; if US stocks crash again tonight, $1750 may really not hold.
$ETH
Brothers, on May 6th at 3 PM, ETH is making moves again! I just checked the market, and the price is hovering around $1799, down about 0.1% for the day, but don't underestimate this number; there are hidden currents behind the market.
1. Technical aspects: Support levels are critical, can the bulls hold on?
ETH dipped directly to $1794 early this morning, just one step away from the bear market low of $1750 in 2024. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the MACD histogram has shortened, the KDJ death cross has not been resolved, and there is a clear divergence between price and volume—price is rebounding but trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the bulls are not daring to push. The key short-term support is at $1798; if US stocks crash again tonight, $1750 may really not hold.
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May 6, 2025 | In-depth Analysis of the Most Promising Cryptocurrencies
Real-time analysis of major cryptocurrencies
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional support, sustained breakthrough after historical peak
The approval of the Bitcoin futures ETF physical delivery mechanism is driving institutional funds to continuously flow into spot ETFs; BlackRock's IBIT fund scale has surpassed that of gold ETFs, forming a pattern of 'institutional support, retail following'. Technical indicators show that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has dropped to 29%, reinforcing the 'digital gold' attribute; if it breaks through the $100,000 resistance level, FOMO sentiment may further push the price to a target of $156,000.
Potential logic: Supply tightening during halving cycle + hedging demand + ETF fund siphoning effect.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): Institutional support, sustained breakthrough after historical peak
The approval of the Bitcoin futures ETF physical delivery mechanism is driving institutional funds to continuously flow into spot ETFs; BlackRock's IBIT fund scale has surpassed that of gold ETFs, forming a pattern of 'institutional support, retail following'. Technical indicators show that the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has dropped to 29%, reinforcing the 'digital gold' attribute; if it breaks through the $100,000 resistance level, FOMO sentiment may further push the price to a target of $156,000.
Potential logic: Supply tightening during halving cycle + hedging demand + ETF fund siphoning effect.
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May 6th ETH Analysis
ETH Daily Quick Review: After breaking below $1800, is it bottom fishing or escaping?
$ETH
Brothers, on May 6th at 3 PM, ETH is making moves again! I just checked the market, and the price is hovering around $1799, down about 0.1% for the day, but don't underestimate this number; there are hidden currents behind the market.
1. Technical aspects: Support levels are critical, can the bulls hold on?
ETH dipped directly to $1794 early this morning, just one step away from the bear market low of $1750 in 2024. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the MACD histogram has shortened, the KDJ death cross has not been resolved, and there is a clear divergence between price and volume—price is rebounding but trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the bulls are not daring to push. The key short-term support is at $1798; if US stocks crash again tonight, $1750 may really not hold.
$ETH
Brothers, on May 6th at 3 PM, ETH is making moves again! I just checked the market, and the price is hovering around $1799, down about 0.1% for the day, but don't underestimate this number; there are hidden currents behind the market.
1. Technical aspects: Support levels are critical, can the bulls hold on?
ETH dipped directly to $1794 early this morning, just one step away from the bear market low of $1750 in 2024. Looking at the 4-hour chart, although the MACD histogram has shortened, the KDJ death cross has not been resolved, and there is a clear divergence between price and volume—price is rebounding but trading volume is shrinking, indicating that the bulls are not daring to push. The key short-term support is at $1798; if US stocks crash again tonight, $1750 may really not hold.
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A Confession from an Old Retail Investor in Crypto: Can you stop being a retail investor already?
Brothers, today I want to speak some heartfelt truths. This market is like a roller coaster; in the morning, you’re still watching Musk pump Dogecoin, in the afternoon, Bitcoin dives straight down, and in the evening, a new shitcoin project pops up with a "get-rich-quick myth". My phone is about to explode from all the meaningless messages.
Now let me highlight three key points for you (taking notes):
1️⃣ Don't get too caught up in the Bitcoin ETF hype! Those Wall Street suit thugs aren’t here to be philanthropists; they’re playing a ten-year game. Are you really going to chase the highs and lows? You could be burned as fuel in no time, believe it or not?
Now let me highlight three key points for you (taking notes):
1️⃣ Don't get too caught up in the Bitcoin ETF hype! Those Wall Street suit thugs aren’t here to be philanthropists; they’re playing a ten-year game. Are you really going to chase the highs and lows? You could be burned as fuel in no time, believe it or not?
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May 6th, Latest Analysis of Bitcoin (Specific operational advice at the end)
Bitcoin is experiencing intensified short-term bulls and bears! Key support is here
$BTC
Brothers, at 1 PM Beijing time on May 6th, Bitcoin is quoted around 93,800 USD. In the past three days, it has dropped from 97.8K to 93.4K, accumulating a liquidation of 116 million USD in long positions, and market sentiment has noticeably cooled. Combining the latest data and news, let’s discuss a few key logical points simply:
1. Short-term support looks at 93K; if it breaks, it may head straight for 90,000
I warned everyone yesterday that 93K is the short-term defense line, and if it breaks, it might retest 90,000 USD (or even 88K). On-chain data shows that currently, 88% of BTC circulation is in profit, and the 75K-95K range is seen as a new structural bottom, indicating strong support near 93K. However, the funding rate has turned negative, and the leverage ratio for bulls is relatively high. If the Federal Reserve meeting tonight is hawkish, it may trigger further corrections.
$BTC
Brothers, at 1 PM Beijing time on May 6th, Bitcoin is quoted around 93,800 USD. In the past three days, it has dropped from 97.8K to 93.4K, accumulating a liquidation of 116 million USD in long positions, and market sentiment has noticeably cooled. Combining the latest data and news, let’s discuss a few key logical points simply:
1. Short-term support looks at 93K; if it breaks, it may head straight for 90,000
I warned everyone yesterday that 93K is the short-term defense line, and if it breaks, it might retest 90,000 USD (or even 88K). On-chain data shows that currently, 88% of BTC circulation is in profit, and the 75K-95K range is seen as a new structural bottom, indicating strong support near 93K. However, the funding rate has turned negative, and the leverage ratio for bulls is relatively high. If the Federal Reserve meeting tonight is hawkish, it may trigger further corrections.
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The first time taking a single order will also be the only time. Unlike some fake masters who only dare to post edited pictures and are afraid to open real trades. #带单大神
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April 26th This Week's Latest Bitcoin BTC Analysis
(Written by Big Pancake Hunter, all practical content, no nonsense)
1. Current Market Overview
This week, BTC directly broke the $95,000 mark! Behind this surge, institutions are frantically increasing their positions + the Fed's policy easing is the main driving force, but the pressure zone of $96,500-$97,500 is the real test, can it break? Let’s discuss further.
2. Technical Analysis: Key levels need to be closely monitored!
1. Support Level:
Short-term defense point at $93,000 (previous concentrated trading zone, if broken may retest $91,500);
Strong support at $88,500.
2. Resistance Level:
$96,500-$97,500: A daily level pressure zone, breaking through it and heading straight for $100,000 is not a dream;
1. Current Market Overview
This week, BTC directly broke the $95,000 mark! Behind this surge, institutions are frantically increasing their positions + the Fed's policy easing is the main driving force, but the pressure zone of $96,500-$97,500 is the real test, can it break? Let’s discuss further.
2. Technical Analysis: Key levels need to be closely monitored!
1. Support Level:
Short-term defense point at $93,000 (previous concentrated trading zone, if broken may retest $91,500);
Strong support at $88,500.
2. Resistance Level:
$96,500-$97,500: A daily level pressure zone, breaking through it and heading straight for $100,000 is not a dream;
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Liangxi: The Madness and Disillusionment of a 'Gambler' in the Crypto World—When Myths Become Warning Tales of Bubbles
Author: Big Cake Hunter
#凉兮
In the cryptocurrency world, which is filled with myths of sudden wealth and lessons learned through blood and tears, Liangxi (real name Geng Zhiyu) is undoubtedly one of the most controversial symbols. He emerged under the name 'Contract War God' and fell from grace as a 'mad gambler.' His life trajectory resembles an absurd black film, reflecting the greed and restlessness of the early chaotic days of the crypto world, while also exposing the distortion and loss of control of human nature under extreme wealth fluctuations. As a KOL who has experienced the industry's ups and downs, I attempt to unveil the truth behind the Liangxi myth from a critical perspective.
#凉兮
In the cryptocurrency world, which is filled with myths of sudden wealth and lessons learned through blood and tears, Liangxi (real name Geng Zhiyu) is undoubtedly one of the most controversial symbols. He emerged under the name 'Contract War God' and fell from grace as a 'mad gambler.' His life trajectory resembles an absurd black film, reflecting the greed and restlessness of the early chaotic days of the crypto world, while also exposing the distortion and loss of control of human nature under extreme wealth fluctuations. As a KOL who has experienced the industry's ups and downs, I attempt to unveil the truth behind the Liangxi myth from a critical perspective.
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Trump and the Federal Reserve's 'Currency War': The Inevitability of June Rate Cuts from the Cryptocurrency Perspective
Author: Bitcoin Hunter
The U.S. financial market in 2025 is staging an epic game comparable to 'Game of Thrones'—a power duel between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The core of this game is not only the struggle for the survival of monetary policy independence but also directly determines the direction of global liquidity tides. As an old player in the cryptocurrency sphere, Bitcoin Hunter guides us through the political smoke to grasp the essence: the June interest rate cut has become a foregone conclusion, and the cryptocurrency market will emerge as the biggest winner!
1. Trump's 'Interest Rate Cut Obsession': Dual Drives of Political Survival and Market Manipulation
The U.S. financial market in 2025 is staging an epic game comparable to 'Game of Thrones'—a power duel between Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. The core of this game is not only the struggle for the survival of monetary policy independence but also directly determines the direction of global liquidity tides. As an old player in the cryptocurrency sphere, Bitcoin Hunter guides us through the political smoke to grasp the essence: the June interest rate cut has become a foregone conclusion, and the cryptocurrency market will emerge as the biggest winner!
1. Trump's 'Interest Rate Cut Obsession': Dual Drives of Political Survival and Market Manipulation
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23,000 BTC options will expire today, the Put Call Ratio is 0.96, the maximum pain point is $82,000, and the notional value is $1.97 billion. 177,000 ETH options expire, the Put Call Ratio is 0.84, the maximum pain point is $1,600, and the notional value is $280 million. $BTC $BTC #期权
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Take a look! April 18th Bitcoin BTC latest analysis
Friends, take a look! April 18th 9 AM BTC latest trend analysis!
$BTC
Current price: BTC is currently around 84,800 USD, fluctuating between 83,700-85,500 in the past 24 hours. Simply put, this market is in 'range-bound volatility', with the main force playing high selling and low buying, while retail investors are getting cut back and forth, but let’s not panic; if we stay steady, we can win!
Key technical signals
1. Daily level:
EMA30 (83,800) is a strong support, it has tested multiple times without breaking, indicating bulls are still holding on.
MACD volume is insufficient; although DIF and DEA are rising, there is no sustained increase in volume, the upward momentum is weak.
$BTC
Current price: BTC is currently around 84,800 USD, fluctuating between 83,700-85,500 in the past 24 hours. Simply put, this market is in 'range-bound volatility', with the main force playing high selling and low buying, while retail investors are getting cut back and forth, but let’s not panic; if we stay steady, we can win!
Key technical signals
1. Daily level:
EMA30 (83,800) is a strong support, it has tested multiple times without breaking, indicating bulls are still holding on.
MACD volume is insufficient; although DIF and DEA are rising, there is no sustained increase in volume, the upward momentum is weak.
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