#美联储FOMC会议 1. Technical Analysis

The current Bitcoin price is oscillating around the 94,300 range, with the 4-hour candlestick chart showing three consecutive bearish candles, indicating a clear bearish dominance. From a technical indicator perspective, the MACD histogram continues to maintain negative values, further confirming that bearish forces are in control.

In terms of key price levels, there is significant support at 93,500, which coincides with the 200-day moving average, providing strong support for the price. If this support level is broken, the Bitcoin price may further decline to the 90,000 mark. The upper resistance level is at 97,384, which is the high point from May 5th. If this resistance level is successfully breached, it will open up upward potential, likely aiming for the 100,000 integer mark.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow Analysis

1. Policy Level: The U.S. House of Representatives released a draft for cryptocurrency regulation today, which is expected to increase market volatility in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor policy details and market reactions.

2. Positioning Situation: Currently, 88% of the circulating Bitcoin is in a profitable state, indicating that the overall market holding cost is relatively low, providing some support for the price. A new structural bottom has formed in the 75,000 to 95,000 range, which shows considerable support strength.

3. Operational Strategy

1. Aggressive Strategy: If the Bitcoin price dips to the 93,500 support level and stabilizes, a light position long can be attempted. It is recommended to set the stop-loss at 93,000 and target the price at the 97,384 resistance level.

2. Conservative Strategy: Patiently wait for the price to effectively break through the 97,384 resistance level before following the trend to go long. Set the stop-loss at 96,500 and target the price at the 100,000 integer mark.

3. Short Strategy: Once the price breaks below the 93,500 key support level, consider entering a short position when the price rebounds near 94,000. Set the stop-loss at 94,500 and target the price down to 90,000.

graph TD;

A[Bitcoin price oscillating at 94,300] --> B[4-hour candlestick three consecutive bearish candles, MACD histogram is negative, bearish dominance]

B --> C[Key support level 93,500 (200-day moving average)]

C --> D{Is the support level broken}

D -->|Yes| E[Price declines to 90,000]

D -->|No| F[Maintains oscillation or rebounds]

B --> G[Upper resistance level 97,384 (May 5th high)]

G --> H{Is the resistance level breached}

H -->|Yes| I[Aiming for the 100,000 mark]