At 8 AM on October $ETH , a shocking global news broke the silence: Israel launched an airstrike on Iran. As soon as the news broke, the financial markets were instantly stirred, especially in the cryptocurrency sector, where investors' nerves were tightly wound. Ethereum, the leader of digital currencies, seemed to touch a high of $2800 in that moment, which then triggered a stir in the market—was this a signal of a peak? Is the cryptocurrency sector about to face a new round of major declines?

In the face of such an unexpected event, many people's first reaction may be panic. After all, military conflicts have always been regarded as a 'black swan' for the financial markets, with the uncertainty they bring often enough to cause asset prices to fluctuate instantly. However, when we calm down and carefully examine history and reality, we may find that things are not that simple.

Looking back over the past few years, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted quite a long time. Although there was indeed a short-term severe fluctuation in the market at the beginning of the conflict, as time went on, investors gradually learned how to find balance in such uncertainty. Similarly, the friction between Israel and Iran is not a new phenomenon. Although these conflicts often touch the nerves of the world, in the long river of financial markets, they seem no longer to be 'bombshells' capable of causing widespread turmoil.

So, why does the news of Israel's airstrike on Iran still cause a stir in the cryptocurrency sector? This may be intricately related to the current background trend of the market. In a bear market environment, any negative news can become the last straw that breaks the camel's back, triggering a complete market collapse. However, in the current bull market context, the situation is different. Although the news of the conflict can still trigger short-term market fluctuations, the main funds often use this news to manipulate market trends, creating a specific market atmosphere.

In such a market atmosphere, many investors are bound by a kind of inertia thinking. They firmly believe that once the price rises, a major drop is inevitable. This obsession is particularly common in the cryptocurrency sector, to the extent that many people, upon seeing a slight price fluctuation, eagerly want to 'short' for profit. However, the reality is often not that simple.