Recently, gold has once again become the hot topic in the hard asset investment circle. Whether it's Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research or billionaire John Paulson, both are making bold predictions: gold prices are marching towards $5,000. The more concerning question is whether Bitcoin, dubbed "digital gold," can follow this trend and even achieve another "far ahead" explosion?
Historical experience tells us that Bitcoin and gold often rise together during periods of macro liquidity easing, but Bitcoin's gains consistently "crush" those of gold.
Looking back in history: Bitcoin has outperformed gold by six times.
Let's review two key market situations:
From March 2020 to March 2022, the Federal Reserve embarked on the most aggressive monetary easing cycle in history, with gold rising about 35.5% and Bitcoin soaring over 1110%.
From November 2022 to November 2023, as global M2 money supply expanded again, gold rose approximately 25%, while Bitcoin shone brightly again, with an increase of nearly 6 times (about 150%).
This asymmetric explosion under high correlation makes Bitcoin the absolute "leader" in the global market when liquidity is flooding.
$5,000 gold = $285,000 Bitcoin?
Currently, gold prices have stabilized around $3,200, having once broken through the $3,500 mark. If gold indeed rises to $5,000 as predicted—an increase of about 50%—historical trends suggest that Bitcoin may see at least a 300% increase.
This means that if Bitcoin is currently around the $95,000 range, its potential target price could be around $285,000.
This deduction aligns with crypto analyst apsk32's power law model based on the market capitalization of gold—both predicting a "synchronized explosion of Bitcoin driven by the gold frenzy."
The historical data backtest and price model of Mlion.ai also confirm a similar trend: there is a "lagging resonance" between gold and Bitcoin, and Bitcoin's price elasticity is far greater than that of traditional precious metals.
Dollar depreciation: Bitcoin's next "booster"?
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, offers a more impactful view—he believes that gold prices are not only likely to hit $6,000 but will also propel Bitcoin into a new high phase.
Holmes specifically mentioned that the Trump administration's tough tariff policies are expected to weaken the dollar's value by 25%, which will not only stimulate central bank demand for gold but also provide excellent upward space for Bitcoin as a "borderless asset."
In Holmes' conception:
Short-term goal: Bitcoin first breaks through the supply barrier of $97,000, rising to the range of $120,000 to $150,000;
Medium to long-term goal: With the rise in adoption rates, Bitcoin is even expected to challenge the skyline of $250,000.
The phenomenon of Bitcoin's "lagging rise"
In the current market, there are rational voices reminding investors: Bitcoin's performance often lags behind gold.
For example, analyst Cryptollica points out that although gold has risen 33% so far in 2024, Bitcoin has only slightly increased by 0.82%. This "silent period" may indicate that once Bitcoin breaks out of its consolidation range, it will release a huge momentum that has been suppressed.
In fact, Bitcoin's recent pullback of about 30% from its historical high of $110,000 is significantly less than the past adjustments often exceeding 50%, which to some extent indicates an increased resilience in the market.
Mlion.ai's market sentiment analysis module also shows that Bitcoin's social media long-short ratio is currently leaning bearish. Historically, whenever a combination of "funding discrepancies + strong gold" occurs, it often precedes a new round of upward movement.
Conclusion: The new era of hard assets, Bitcoin may once again "take the baton."
Whether it is monetary easing, dollar depreciation, or the wave of central banks increasing gold holdings, it indicates that we are in a cycle of "hard asset revival." Bitcoin, as a digital asset on par with gold, is both a safe haven tool and a target for repricing of risk preferences.
History does not simply repeat itself, but the rhythm of market behavior always has traces to follow. If gold breaks through $5,000, can the historical "inertia" of Bitcoin rising at least 6 times gold's increase be reproduced? The market has begun to bet on it.
Want to capture Bitcoin's potential explosion points in real-time or dynamically monitor the linkage effects between gold and the crypto market? You might want to try Mlion.ai's intelligent price model and capital flow monitoring, allowing decisions to be based on data rather than blind emotions.
Disclaimer: The above content is a market observation and trend interpretation and does not constitute specific investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments should be made rationally at one's own risk.