Why are U.S. stocks and Bitcoin rising?
The recent rise in U.S. stocks and Bitcoin is driven by two major factors.
Firstly, macro sentiment is stable. After the GDP data was released, people feel that the U.S. economy is not so bad, and at least there are no signs of recession for now.
Secondly, the performance of the earnings season has played a significant role. Meta and Microsoft's impressive earnings reports have ignited market sentiment, with investors feeling bullish and increasing their holdings in stocks and crypto assets.
However, market liquidity is still insufficient. Until the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the market will continue to be driven by economic data and policy expectations.
Now, everyone's attention is focused on today's non-farm employment data.
The market expects the unemployment rate to remain the same as last month.
If the non-farm payroll data performs well, with job growth exceeding expectations and good wage increases, the market will further confirm that the economy is improving. U.S. stocks and Bitcoin may continue to rise, but gold and U.S. Treasuries may continue to face pressure.
If the non-farm payroll data performs poorly, with slow job growth and unsatisfactory wage data, the market may become concerned about an economic slowdown again. Risk aversion may rise, gold may rebound, and U.S. stocks and BTC may face pressure.
Therefore, today's non-farm payroll data is a key point.
Are the large holders hoarding or selling?
On-chain data shows that the buying demand for Bitcoin is very strong.
This week, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges is below the average level of the past month.
Even if GDP data causes market volatility, there hasn't been a large-scale influx of Bitcoin into exchanges for selling, indicating that people are not worried about short-term fluctuations.
The amount of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges is also decreasing; simply put, more Bitcoin is being withdrawn than deposited.
The amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is also steadily decreasing. Everyone is withdrawing BTC, indicating strong buying sentiment and low selling pressure.
Who is crazily buying Bitcoin?
Since April 17, 2025, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has shifted from net outflows to net inflows, gaining momentum.
During this period, ETFs have purchased a total of 42,558 Bitcoins, with total holdings reaching 1,155,453 BTC.
MicroStrategy is even more dramatic, now holding 553,555 BTC, having increased their holdings by 25,370 BTC in the past three weeks.
Let's do some math. In the past 155 days, the total number of actively traded Bitcoins is 2,376,577.
The combined holdings of ETFs and MicroStrategy amount to 1,709,008 BTC, accounting for 72% of the circulating pool! More importantly, these holdings are almost unchanged.
Previously, when Bitcoin fell to $74,000, there was almost no outflow from ETFs, and MicroStrategy held onto their Bitcoins tightly.
This means that these massive holdings are unlikely to put downward pressure on the price, making the number of tradable Bitcoins increasingly scarce. With a reduction in supply and stable demand, it becomes easier to stabilize Bitcoin prices.
In addition, long-term holders and high-net-worth investors are also the main buyers.
Since February 21, 2025, long-term holders have been steadily increasing their positions.
Currently, wallets holding more than 10 BTC are the main buyers, with only small retail investors selling.
As long as the macro environment doesn't collapse, such as through major policy changes or global crises, these buying activities can stabilize the bottom for Bitcoin.
Next, U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will likely experience high-level fluctuations, waiting for new breakthrough signals.
The volatile market is suitable for opening spot grids. This morning, we opened one in the 83,000-99,000 range, allowing the quant robot to automatically perform high-selling and low-buying.