If the U.S. initiates a rate cut cycle, the trends of gold, Bitcoin, and the dollar will be influenced by multiple factors and require a comprehensive analysis of the economic environment, market expectations, and policy strength. The following is a specific analysis:
---
### **1. Gold: The Game of Safe-Haven Properties and Interest Rate Sensitivity**
- **Bullish Factors**
- **Rate Cut Expectations Support Gold Prices**: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts will lower real interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while loose policies may exacerbate inflation expectations, enhancing the demand for gold as a store of value. The market currently expects a cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by 2025, and gold may benefit from the easing cycle in the medium to long term.
- **Risk of Economic Recession**: The unexpected contraction of 0.3% in U.S. GDP in the first quarter, combined with trade frictions and geopolitical risks (such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict), enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- **Bearish Factors**
- **Temporary Strength of the Dollar**: If the rate cut is less than expected or economic data improves in the short term (such as resilient consumption), the dollar may rebound, suppressing gold priced in dollars. Recently, the dollar index rose to a two-week high, leading to a three-day decline in gold prices.
- **Technical Selling Pressure**: After gold fell below the key support level of $3260, it triggered technical selling; if it further breaks below the psychological level of $3200, it may lead to a deeper pullback.
- **Conclusion**: In the short term, attention should be paid to the struggle for the support level of $3260; if it holds, there is hope for a resumption of upward movement; in the medium to long term, supported by the rate cut cycle and economic uncertainty, gold may oscillate towards strength, targeting the $3400-$3500 region.
---
### **2. Bitcoin: The Contradiction Driven by Risk Appetite and Liquidity**
- **Bullish Factors**
- **Improvement in Liquidity**: The liquidity released by interest rate cuts may flow into the cryptocurrency market, especially as the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' strengthens, attracting funds for safe-haven or speculative demand. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates more than four times this year, Bitcoin may see significant boosts.
- **Expectations of Dollar Depreciation**: A weaker dollar may enhance Bitcoin's pricing advantage, partially replacing gold's safe-haven function.
- **Bearish Factors**
- **Risk Asset Attributes**: Bitcoin remains highly correlated with risk assets like U.S. stocks; if rate cuts stem from an economic recession (rather than preemptive easing), market panic may trigger sell-offs. For example, after the U.S. GDP contracted in the first quarter, Bitcoin briefly fell below $94,000.
- **Policy Uncertainty**: The Trump administration's fluctuating tariff policies and tightening regulations may suppress the short-term performance of cryptocurrencies.
- **Conclusion**: The trend of Bitcoin will depend on the balance between the pace of rate cuts and the risks of economic recession. If rate cuts accompany a soft landing for the economy, it may break through $100,000; if recession signals strengthen, volatility will increase, with short-term support in the $80,000-$90,000 range.
