Let's talk about today's non-farm data:
Yesterday's GDP was a false alarm; the market seems to realize that the U.S. economy still has enough resilience in the first quarter. However, it is still uncertain whether this resilience is due to tariffs. We cannot rule out the expansion of domestic demand brought about by tariffs. The unemployment rate announced in April rose from 4% to 4.2%, and the economic downturn has been personally indicated by Powell and the Federal Reserve.
This is also the reason why people are worried about the first quarter GDP. The key indicator for whether the economy can continue to maintain resilience in the second quarter will be the monthly unemployment rate. If the unemployment rate rises, it is very likely to increase the frequency of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which also indicates that the economic trend will worsen.
In tonight's data, market expectations are still good, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.2%, the same as the previous value. However, I feel the unemployment rate might increase, possibly to 4.3% or 4.4%. Of course, my personal feeling may not be accurate. If the unemployment rate does rise, we need to see whether it is due to 'loss of joy' or 'loss of matters'.
ps: Yesterday's PCE data has already indicated that the wage growth for the public is slowing, but spending continues to increase......