The US side has actively contacted the Chinese side through various channels, hoping to negotiate on tariff issues. In fact, tariffs themselves are a means for the US to extort the interests of other countries through its global influence; ultimately, tariffs are only symbolically increased or kept at existing levels, while the benefits the US receives from various countries are substantial, which can reduce government deficits. Additionally, with the end of the Russia-Ukraine war approaching, the US will certainly not miss out on the mineral resources gained from Ukraine. These are actually positive signals. As a result, gold is declining.
Last night, the ADP PCE data was released, showing low employment numbers and a high personal consumption index, reflecting weakened corporate development and excessive inflation. These are negative for both the economy and the cryptocurrency market, with BTC dropping to 92,900 but then finding support at the 12-hour Bollinger middle band, returning to the 6-hour Bollinger range for fluctuations. It seems that the market has returned to a state of rising to break new highs, but from the Sunday line indicator analysis, a wave of selling is inevitable. The capital main force has not yet sold off; it is hidden, and we are being monitored by big data. Currently, the market trend is indeed tormenting, but do not be overly anxious; the more this time, the more cautious we need to be.
Summary:
The US government's recent actions are leaning towards benefiting the market, while ADP and PCE are negative, so let's see tonight's PMI and tomorrow's major non-farm data.
Remember a signal: on April 7, the market rose from 74,500 to a maximum of 95,750, an increase of 29.86%, rising 22,250 points. Today is May 1, and the monthly cycle should also have a correction before rising.
If it just rises like this, the weekly MACD will definitely golden cross, forming a bull trend, but the probability is very small; we are still looking at 89,000-90,500.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is on May 8, with 7 days left, closely monitoring the 12-hour Bollinger squeeze pattern. If the market does not break below the middle band in the next few days and maintains a flat three-line pattern, then it will not drop further, and the overall trend will reverse to an upward trend. Breaking 96,000. However, this situation seems too early to analyze at present, as the trend has not yet formed.
Solid: Bearish on 89,000-90,500, but continue to operate within the 6-hour Bollinger high short and low long range, using the 'short probe method' for entry and secondary risk protection for trades.
