I previously used a data reference called Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL, which is actually more accurate when analyzing Bitcoin (BTC), and it has never 'missed' in history.

However, I have always mentioned this indicator last because I am uncertain whether Bitcoin would fall into its 'red warning zone' in the event of an economic recession.

If it really does drop into this range, then this indicator will become my core signal for judging 'bottom buying'—as soon as it enters the red zone, I can start buying in batches, buying more as it falls.

Apart from the Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL data, no other indicators can assure me that 'buying now will definitely not result in a loss'.

Even this most reliable indicator cannot guarantee that you can buy at the lowest point.

So if an economic recession really causes Bitcoin to drop, buying should be slow and in batches; don’t go all in at once.

Ultimately, these are just reference standards based on data; actual operations still need to be judged in conjunction with the macroeconomic situation.