One, use the US stock market (S&P 500) to judge the timing of entry.

The US stock market is the 'weather vane' of risk markets; looking back at historical recessions:

  • 2001 Internet bubble: S&P 500 dropped a maximum of 49%, average drop of 22%;

  • 2008 financial crisis: maximum drop of 57%, average drop of 38%;

  • 2020 pandemic: maximum drop of 34%, average drop of 28%.

    My strategy: When the S&P 500 drops about 20% from the current price (for example, below 4000 points or 4400 points), start buying Bitcoin in batches.

Two, use the 'fear index' (VIX) to gauge market sentiment.

VIX can reflect the level of panic in the US stock market:

  • Below 30: market normal correction;

  • Above 50: entering recession rhythm;

  • Above 80: the most panic point of recession (both 2008 and 2020 exceeded 80).

    My strategy: When VIX rises to around 70 (taking the midpoint), it indicates that the market is very panicked, start buying Bitcoin.

Three, use Bitcoin's own 'bottom range' (URPD).

URPD data shows that Bitcoin has repeatedly validated support between 70,000 - 80,000 USD (for example, the previously mentioned 70,000 USD bottom).


My strategy: If Bitcoin drops below 75,000 USD, start buying directly. But I’m not sure if it can drop to this level, so I will act based on which condition (S&P and VIX) is met first.

Four, use the long-term investor sentiment indicator (Entity-Adjusted LTH-NUPL)

This indicator specifically looks at the cost and sentiment of long-term holders. Historically, whenever it enters the 'red panic zone,' it has been a significant bottom signal for Bitcoin (never missed).


My strategy: If the recession causes this indicator to enter the red zone, immediately focus on buying, the more it drops, the more I buy.

Final reminder:

  1. No indicator can guarantee buying at the lowest point; the key is to buy in batches (for example, in 3-5 times, buying more as it drops further).

  2. These four methods can validate each other; act on whichever one meets the conditions first, don’t wait for the 'perfect lowest point.'

  3. Also, flexibly adjust according to macro events (like Federal Reserve policies, economic data), don’t just look at the data!


To put it simply, bottom fishing means 'entering the market in batches when others panic,' but be sure to diversify risk and don’t go all in!