Tonight's non-farm data will be a key turning point for the crypto market! It's like the final whistle in a football match, directly determining the outcome.

I. Why is non-farm data important?

Non-farm data is the monthly employment report released by the U.S., including three core indicators: new jobs added, unemployment rate, and average hourly wage. It directly affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy:

  • Strong data (e.g., new jobs added above expectations): Possible interest rate hikes → USD appreciation → downward pressure on cryptocurrencies.

  • Weak data (e.g., rising unemployment rate): Possible interest rate cuts → USD depreciation → potential rise in cryptocurrencies.

  • Tonight's key point: Data will be released at 20:30 Beijing time, with a previous value of 228,000 and an expectation of 135,000. If actual data is below expectations, it may spark market expectations for easing policies, which would be favorable for crypto.

II. Survival rules in the crypto circle

1. The iron rules of bull and bear markets

  • Avoid short-term trading in a bull market: It's like taking an elevator; getting off midway means missing the view from the top. Those who frequently changed positions during the 2023 bull market generally earned less than long-term holders.

  • Avoid long-term trading in a bear market: It's like going down a slide; the more you try to catch the bottom, the more you get stuck. Those who held positions during the 2022 bear market averaged losses over 60%.

  • Avoid panic selling in a bull market: Pullbacks are buying opportunities. When Bitcoin dropped from 35,000 to 30,000 in October 2024, those who bought the dip saw their investment double in two months.

  • Avoid chasing highs in a bear market: Rebounds are opportunities to escape. In June 2023, when ETH rebounded from 2000 to 2400, those who greedily chased the high ended up getting stuck.

2. Six practical strategies

  • Buy with patience, sell with determination: Dollar-cost averaging in batches, exit decisively if it falls below stop-loss levels. Investors who bought the dip in LTC in 2024 avoided short-term fluctuations with weekly investments.

  • Buy on small dips during rises, sell on small rises during declines: In April 2025, when BNB rose, a 5% pullback allowed decisive buyers to gain over 30%; selling immediately on a 3% rebound during a decline avoided deep losses.

  • Divide your investments: With 100,000 yuan, buy in 5 batches of 20,000 each. During the FTX crisis in 2023, those who divided their investments lost only 20%, while those fully invested lost everything.

  • Support levels will break, resistance levels will be breached: In 2024, Bitcoin tested the 30,000 mark multiple times before finally breaking through and soaring to 45,000; in 2025, ETH broke through after two months of oscillation at the 2000 resistance level.

  • Both long and short positions can make money, but greed will lead to losses: In March 2025, during the USDT decoupling event, short sellers earned over 100% in a single day, but those who were greedy and didn't take profits ultimately lost their gains.

  • Take profit at 80%: When DOT rose from 50 to 80 in 2024, those who took profits in time safeguarded their earnings, while those who greedily waited for 100 eventually saw a pullback.

III. Tonight's operational strategy

  1. Before the data is released:

    • Maintain a light position and avoid making premature bets. Investors who heavily invested before the non-farm payroll in May 2024 suffered losses exceeding 40% due to unexpectedly strong data.

    • Set stop-loss and take-profit levels. If it breaks key support levels (like Bitcoin at 38,000), exit immediately.

  2. After the data is released:

    • If the data is favorable (e.g., below expectations): quickly buy mainstream coins, focusing on liquid assets like ETH and BNB.

    • If the data is unfavorable (e.g., above expectations): consider shorting or positioning in stablecoins, waiting for panic-driven market dips to buy in.

  3. Long-term principles:

    • In a bull market, heavily invest in mainstream coins; in a bear market, allocate to safe-haven assets like USDT and BTC.

    • Always keep 30% of funds to deal with extreme market conditions. Those who left enough funds during the LUNA crash in 2022 were able to successfully buy the dip.

IV. Insights from historical cases

  • May 2024: Strong non-farm data causes Bitcoin to plummet 8% on the same day, leading to significant losses for those who chased after the rise.

  • March 2025: Weak non-farm data results in Bitcoin rising 12% against the trend, providing substantial profits for those who had positioned early.


Tonight's major non-farm payroll data will create huge waves in the crypto market! Remember: opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared. Regardless of whether the data is good or bad, strictly follow the strategy and control risks to achieve stable profits amidst volatility. Let’s witness history together at 20:30 tonight!