Source: Cointelegraph
Original: (Token 2049: Arthur Hayes reiterates the prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach $1 million by 2028)
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes spoke at the Token 2049 conference, providing a detailed analysis of the factors driving Bitcoin's price increase and reiterating the prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028.
Hayes reviewed the market environment in 2022: "2022 was a very scary time. The social bankers, those who have been 'carrying us' since 2008, actually began to tighten monetary conditions. The data shows that in the third quarter of 2022, almost 100% of the central banks they monitored were in a rate hike cycle."
"According to fiscal data from October to March, the federal budget deficit has grown by 22% year-on-year," Hayes noted, "American taxpayers are bankrupt. The main source of U.S. tax revenue is capital gains tax. When the stock market falls by 20%, people do not make money in the stock market and do not have to pay taxes."
Regarding foreign sovereign funds' willingness to purchase U.S. Treasury bonds, Hayes stated: "In 2022, the Biden administration decided to freeze the bonds of Russia, the largest commodity producer. If you are a sovereign wealth fund manager, would you want to hold a large amount of Treasury bonds but possibly have them confiscated due to disagreements with Washington? No. This is why since 2022, you have seen a second wave of gold prices rise and an increase in the amount of gold purchased by sovereign governments."
Speaking about the recent market, Hayes said: "April 2025 is alarming because tech stocks have been hit hard. There is currently a saying that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are just a high-leverage version of Nasdaq. Therefore, when Nasdaq fell about 20% into a correction zone in early April, people's risk appetite declined accordingly."
"We will reach $1 million by 2028 because more currency will be printed," Hayes emphasized, "What will happen when Trump's tariff policy returns? Will the Republicans concede in 2024? No. They will do whatever it takes to stimulate the economy and create the illusion of growth and strength, just like any other politician. This shift in the relationship between the two economic and military powers will be supported by money printing. The rise of Bitcoin will far exceed that from 2022 to 2025; this is the path to a $1 million Bitcoin."
Related: Cryptocurrency executive: Strategy's purchase of Bitcoin (BTC) should be 'very casual' to drive prices