Bitcoin: Why Is This Rally Catching You Off Guard?
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just closed three consecutive green weekly candles, with the most recent one showing strong momentum—and the new week picking up right where it left off. But this rally shouldn't come as a surprise to those following closely. Bitcoin is once again ticking all the boxes that have preceded major uptrends since the November 2022 bear market bottom.
In the first week of April, BTC bounced powerfully off the 1W MA50 (blue trendline)—a level we've consistently identified as the backbone of this bull cycle. This same moving average supported the explosive rallies of Q4 2023 and Q4 2024.
Simultaneously, the 1W RSI broke above its moving average last week—another historically reliable confirmation of a bullish leg beginning. With the 1W Bollinger Bands still in a range, the upper band is poised to expand rapidly as Bitcoin’s uptrend gathers pace—mirroring the price action of October 2023 and October 2024.
Historically, each bullish leg in this cycle has lasted a similar duration, with the longest stretching to 14 weeks. If this pattern holds, the current rally could peak around the week of July 14, 2025, potentially marking a +92% move and pushing toward the higher-high trendline near $140,000—a level aligned with the February–March 2024 breakout trajectory.
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