BTC: Are the dual kills of long and short positions approaching?!
The day before yesterday, I mentioned that #BTC 96000 is a significant hurdle, and we have been unable to surpass it, yet we also can't drop below it. It is evident that there is a strong force supporting the price. Here’s my latest outlook on the upcoming movements:
1. From the estimated liquidation perspective: upwards 97500 could liquidate 1.5 billion, downwards 86000 could liquidate 3.2 billion, which seems more favorable for a downward movement. However, I can't see it dropping that deep; at most, it could return to around 91000, where it could liquidate 1.5 billion, resulting in a dual kill of long and short positions.
2. From the chip structure perspective: there has been no change in the last few days. There is a force continuously supporting BTC to oscillate around 94000. This is a form of price washing because there are too many trapped positions above 96000. However, just washing like this is not enough; without significant volatility, the trapped positions above will not cut their losses.
In summary, I am optimistic about the upward trend in May, but before that, the trapped positions above 96000 need to be washed out. If these positions do not cut their losses, they will dump at higher levels above 100,000 later on. The best way to wash the price is through this dual kill approach—unlimited sideways movement combined with long and short dual kills. Prices can’t go up, and we don’t know how much they can drop. We need to let these positions suffer and try to liquidate at low levels around 91000. Many times, human nature is like this; during a rise, people won’t sell, and they tend to chase prices and kill dips.
Additionally, speaking about altcoins, recently altcoins have actually risen for two consecutive weeks. It can be said that this is the strongest wave in the past six months, with an average increase of 50%-200%. The profit-taking potential is significant. I believe that along with BTC’s dual kill, altcoins will also need to realize some profits, and we can expect a collective drop of around 30%.
Finally, I will frequently share my latest views at 清水的小天地.
