After pondering for a day about where the market will go next, I still can't quite figure it out. There are quite a few people shorting right now, and logically, I should continue to go long. However, the macro uncertainty makes it difficult for me to make the decision to go long. So let's bring out the long-lost 'carving the boat to seek the sword' method.
Currently, the market is somewhat resembling the movement around August 13, 2021. During that time, the daily line dipped six times before being suppressed by the MA230 daily line. After breaking through, it stabilized above the MA140 line, and then completed a correction gradually stabilizing between the MA120 and MA250, eventually reaching new highs.
If this time it also follows this pattern, we need to pay attention to these positions:
MA120: 91650 MA140: 92700 MA230: 85800 MA250: 83700
So if we follow this liquidation chart and first go up to 965 and then down to 91 or 87, it might be a better short-term strategy.
However, if we skip the short-term intraday operations, this week we need to closely observe the non-farm payrolls and PCE data, after all, this is the first macro data since the trade war, which will directly guide market sentiment and expectations. If the data is very poor, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates, then the final drop may be coming.