I don't believe this bull market will have a double top at the end of 2025 like in 2021 (I personally think the main bull market is still ongoing), but it is evident that BTC has entered a weekly adjustment phase, or that the adjustment is halfway through. Since it is a weekly adjustment, it is basically impossible to see a bottom reversal and new highs without a rate cut; if May can consolidate and stabilize at 90,000, I think that would be quite good.

Given that this round of adjustment has been much more severe than initially expected in terms of time and depth, if the bull market continues, it is likely that it won't end with a single wave in June-July, but rather extend to September-October (though I don't think it will extend to the end of the year for a double top). Of course, specifics will need to be observed as we go; in short, during the later stages of the bull market, gradually reduce positions and take profits when possible, and avoid re-entering positions that have already been exited.

This bull market is controlled by Wall Street; they are working together with the loudmouth Trump to create hype, make moves, and cut losses, leaving retail investors in a tough spot. The voice of Chinese people in the crypto space has effectively gone to zero. I suggest everyone lower their expectations for the crypto market in the future and adopt a conservative strategy (only hold BTC for the long term), as preserving capital is crucial. It’s possible that in the next two to three months these institutions will shift to operating ETH as the market's main focus (after all, it has enough room for growth), leaving those who recently swapped various altcoins for BTC at the bottom to get cut again. I think this is very likely.

Even if the top collapses and the bull market ends, it's unlikely BTC will drop 50% in three months or 80% in a year as it did before; BTC will belong to Wall Street's large funds and institutional ETFs, serving as a market-making and capital reserve asset for publicly listed companies and the foreign exchange reserves of small to medium countries; the wealthy and corporations will treat it as an asset for allocation (it preserves value and increases 2-5 times every four years, which is very appealing). BTC has already moved away from new small retail investors.

Ideal trend:

BTC is expected to actively consolidate in the next one to two weeks, pulling back to around 85,000, completing a thorough chip handover to gather strength for the bulls. If the trend is healthy, it is likely to welcome a new wave of small peaks in June and challenge the key target of 110,000.

There are quite a few important events this week, and the open interest in the contract market remains high:

Tuesday: US March labor mobility data

Wednesday: US Q1 GDP and price index

Thursday: Bank of Japan interest rate decision

Friday: US April non-farm employment and unemployment rate

Additionally: 74 million SUI, 31.34 million OP, significant unlocks, it feels like another round of major battles is about to happen, and I'm a bit scared to just watch.

Market corrections are the best time to buy into altcoins; prioritize AI projects!

The AI sector is likely to be the hot topic in this round of bull market speculation; relatively large funds can participate in stable AI coins, medium-sized funds can engage in AI proxy coins, while small funds looking to gamble can directly participate in AI + meme.

TAO: Supports a blockchain-based machine learning network, incentivizing participants to train and operate machine learning models in a distributed manner.

RENDER: A peer-to-peer GPU computing network based on Solana, providing a distributed GPU computing marketplace.

WLD: AI identity protocol representative; although the unlock is quite significant, it indeed has reached a bottom.