The recent trend is actually quite similar to our previous predictions; overall, it is slowly pushing upwards within small bullish candles. Why is it moving so slowly? It's simple: the main force is deliberately using time to wear down the retail investors' patience and emotions. A while ago, there was a rapid rebound from the lows, and many people were still stuck in the consolidation zone, afraid to enter the market recklessly at this stage. However, when the market rises steadily for a week within this range, the buying sentiment in the market gradually begins to infect those who are hesitant. Once it breaks a new high later, those who were previously on the sidelines will easily chase in at high levels. However, to be honest, I don't have much confidence that Bitcoin can directly surge to $100,000 or higher in the short term.
Some people compare the current situation to the market when Trump was elected, but the essence is different. At that time, there was a huge favorable stimulus, coupled with explosive volume. But now? The trading volume has not significantly increased, and there are no particularly positive news events; it's basically relying on unilateral capital to push prices. Although the volume has slightly increased recently, it is still relatively weak and mixed with bearish fluctuations. This is completely different from the previous situation where it surged in one go and accelerated upward.
If the main force wants to replicate previous rhythms, everyone will see through it at a glance; they definitely won't make it easy for retail investors to profit. For a continued surge, there must be new heavy news to stimulate it, but currently, nothing significant is in sight.
Looking at the 4-hour K-line, Bitcoin's performance is passable, but Ethereum's performance is quite average, often showing long upper and lower shadows; the main force's control is weak. This situation is mostly due to retail investors holding too much, while the main force has very little inventory. The main force wants to control the market, but is unable to do so, resulting in particularly awkward movements. Even if they want to push up, Ethereum finds it hard to take off quickly.
Overall, the current slowly rising pattern is actually a bearish signal. Because while prices are rising, trading volume is shrinking, and the speed of the rise is slowing down; the divergence between volume and price is becoming more and more obvious. Even without looking at indicators, it's highly likely that the MACD has also started to diverge. This indicates that buying pressure is starting to exhaust, and the open contract positions outside are gradually decreasing. In other words, the shorts have almost been fully squeezed out; if it pushes higher, it could likely just be a trap to induce buying.
If I were the main force, what would I do?
The current market situation is as follows:
• Many retail investors don't have any Bitcoin at all;
• Long-time holders have a bunch of Ethereum;
• New and old investors are still holding a bunch of altcoins and are unwilling to cut losses.
Moreover, there are still some people who are cutting losses at low positions and are currently waiting on the sidelines; short contracts have not been completely cleaned out. The main force will certainly want to take advantage of this situation to maximize their profits. Therefore, I speculate that the main force will continue to push higher, but the pace will not be too fast. Bitcoin is likely to reach between $97,000 and $102,000. Once near $100,000, the main force may consolidate slightly but won't take too long before launching a wave of altcoin action. Ethereum may rise to around $2,000, with altcoins generally increasing by 20%-30%.
Some people might ask: After the rise, who will the altcoins be sold to?
Actually, there's no need to worry, because most retail investors have suffered heavy losses; it’s common to see people down 60%-70%. A 20%-30% increase is simply not enough for them to break even, so many people won't sell. At this time, when outsiders see Bitcoin breaking $100,000 and altcoins rising by 10% or 20% every day, naturally more people will be unable to resist rushing in.
Once outside funds rush in en masse and market sentiment reaches its peak, the main force will suddenly launch a downward sell-off. At that time, many people may fall into deep losses, and their emotions will completely collapse. However, for now, it seems that this adjustment should not directly break below the previous major bottom, as the upward cycle has been too short, and the main force hasn't accumulated enough at the lows, lacking a solid foundation for sustained upward movement.
In the short term, tonight's U.S. stock market opening may bring some volatility, but the overall trend should still aim to clear out stop-losses for shorts around $95,700. One thing to note: if Bitcoin makes a new high without obvious volume, or shows long upper shadows or bearish candles, then caution is warranted; consider gradually reducing positions to lock in profits. At such high levels, even if you sell early, the risk-reward ratio is still favorable.
Regarding Ethereum!
In the short term, there may still be a small increase, but the upper limit won't be too high; $1,900-$1,950 is a relatively reasonable target. The chances of breaking above $2,500 are very slim because the main force's cost of pushing higher is too great, and selling pressure will become significantly heavier.
As for altcoins, although there may be a good short-term increase, I still advise everyone to reduce positions on the way up and not to get overly excited and chase high prices during this inducement phase.
Altcoins are basically in a state of rotation, and after the rotation, they are likely to return to meme coins!
A few days ago, meme coins had a fake pump; the popularity is still strong. Once the AI concept coins peak, meme coins will begin their main upward trend again. Select a few meme coins that you are optimistic about and prepare to ambush; a well-placed ambush can yield another wave of doubling profits!
Targeting the bottom: PEPE PNUT CHEEMS