Crypto-小马

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The entire cryptocurrency market has plummeted, and the three major U.S. stock indices, along with Nasdaq tech stocks, have not been spared. The main reason for this market-wide decline is Israel's sudden airstrike on Iran, deploying hundreds of drones to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and nuclear scientists, resulting in dozens of deaths. Iran immediately issued a statement of retaliation, and this sudden incident triggered panic in the financial markets. Iran quickly responded, stating it would retaliate, causing intense turbulence, but there is no need to panic excessively. Today's drop is a typical response to unexpected negative news and is not related to the market's bullish trend. As long as a full-scale Third World War does not break out, localized conflicts will have only a short-term impact on the financial market.

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The entire Bitcoin market has fallen sharply, and the three major U.S. stock indices, along with Nasdaq tech stocks, have also not been spared. The main reason for this widespread market decline is Israel's sudden airstrike on Iran, deploying hundreds of drones to attack Iranian nuclear facilities and scientists, resulting in dozens of deaths. Iran quickly issued a retaliation statement, and this sudden event triggered panic in financial markets. Iran also responded swiftly, stating it would retaliate, causing immediate turmoil. However, there is no need to panic too much; today's drop is a typical reaction to an unexpected negative event and is not related to the bull market trend itself. As long as a full-scale Third World War does not break out, local conflicts will only have a short-term impact on the financial market.

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现在的山寨太敏感了，大盘只要稍微回调就跟着跌，以前那些被捧得很高的主流，现在大资金根本看不上眼，以前玩这些主流的人，现在都跑去了链上，发现，现在的链上meme，其实骨子里跟以前那些主流没啥区别，就是把包装去掉了。

所以，这轮山寨的上涨行情其实已经过去一大半了，在网红币、AI工具币、铭文、符文这些新东西上，都出现过涨一百倍甚至一千倍的B。

反过来，现在交易所上那些曾经风光的老币，很多可能再也翻不了身了，这就是我一直劝那些死拿着小币种不放的朋友赶紧换仓的原因，与其等着这些小币种小概率的翻身机会，不如把钱集中起来，只买各个领域的龙头，比如pepe，aave。

学着像大机构那样思考，把项目的好坏变成可以衡量的标准，现在玩小币种，本身就是高风险高回报的事了。

过去一年，就算是各个领域最牛的币，也很少能跑赢比特币，我看未来小币种的机会，就在于那些能带来超高回报的项目上，当然，主要的仓位还是得放在比特币上。

总之，这一轮行情，是不打算再碰大部分老币了，盯着哪个板块火热，有流量，买相对板块的龙头就可以了。
以太坊随时突破3000高点！大行情最值得抄底的4大100倍主流币！
AAVE
牛市借贷是刚需，逻辑是，大家舍不得卖币就会质押借贷出稳定币去搞别的，AAVE走势强势也说明牛市还在，目前价格258，距离上一轮牛市顶部还有2.5倍的空间
这一轮牛市AAVE破新高几乎是无可争议的，不论是本身的项目发展还是目前AAVE对defi借贷市场的垄断地位来说破新高都是必须的，也就是说如果你追求2~3倍的收益买AAVE就可以了，只要AAVE没有暴跌，牛市就没有结束。

UNI
这段时间的表现可以说比市场上90%的山寨都要好，这个市场其他90%的山寨很多时候在大饼回调的时候都在不断地创新底，而UNI我们能够明显的看到有资金护盘，就跟我给的策略说的一样
接下来行情会偏向于炒作有落地应用的价值币，HYPE已经开了个好头，所以接下来的行情不太可能像以前一样一直炒作MEME币，选择价值币这一块儿，我还是有一定眼光的。

SOL
作为领先的智能合约平台，Solana以极快交易速度和低费用著称，是DeFi领域对以太坊的有力竞争者。美国监管可能批准Solana现货ETF，类似比特币和以太坊ETF吸引机构资金
特朗普提及其为战略加密储备候选，或提升市场关注度。价格近期突破下降通道，现约165，牛市期间有望冲击300

PEPE
我觉得PEPE 比DOGE 好，PEPE对行情的敏感性比狗狗币好多了，BTC涨PEPE会涨，ETH涨PEPE也会涨
MEME赛道启动PEPE还是会涨反观DOGE，真的是像个死狗一样，狗狗币车还是太重了，论风险PEPE和DOGE是差不多的，同样的风险情况下当然选择收益更大的。

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Currently, altcoins are too sensitive; the market just has a slight pullback, and they immediately follow suit. Once hailed as mainstream coins, they are no longer the targets of big funds, and many who traded these coins have already moved on.

Ultimately, these new meme coins on-chain are essentially no different from past mainstream altcoins; they just swapped sophisticated packaging for a more rough and emotional approach. Moreover, this round of altcoin trends has already passed the halfway mark; the truly explosive period occurred earlier in new themes like meme coins, AI tool coins, inscriptions, and runes, with projects experiencing hundredfold or even thousandfold increases.

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ETH drove some related altcoins to rise yesterday, briefly surging to 2798 points, slightly breaking through the previous high of 2788. From the trend, it can be fairly certain to say that after the extremely harsh washout from February to April this year, ETH finally shows signs of a big market starting.

From a fundamental perspective, there are several key factors recently that are favorable for ETH. For instance: the stablecoin regulatory framework and the promotion of real-world assets (RWA) are essentially beneficial for the Ethereum ecosystem; on the other hand, the U.S. SEC's attitude towards ETH staking is slowly easing, which also opens up imaginative space for ETH's long-term value. In the future, the proportion of ETH held by publicly listed companies like Sbet may continue to increase. On a macro level, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle is still continuing.

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BTC's recent pullback did not fall below the 100,000 mark, it dropped near 100,000 and quickly rebounded, which will give the bulls in the market great confidence, indicating that there are still main forces protecting the 100,000 level. Many bears who bet against BTC during the process of it rising from 74,000 to 110,000 have become fuel, further reducing the consumption of the bulls. When the bulls have confidence in the market, the trading volume will become active (or spill over), and becoming active will flow towards higher risk but potentially greater value coins (altcoins).

Currently, the Ethereum-based altcoins are quite active. Ethereum's rally is definitely a huge benefit for the overall altcoin market; however, the current market atmosphere and volume are not enough to support a full bull market, at most it will just lead to sector rotation. Therefore, if Ethereum can initiate a good sector rotation, it will provide significant encouragement and confidence to the market (the volume of playing altcoins). So, if Ethereum can bring out a trend in this wave, then more altcoins can be expected to continue their momentum.

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As early as May 26, I mentioned that regardless of how much it rises, BTC will have at least one significant correction, at least more than 10,000 points (this marks the beginning of BTC's pullback), followed by a period of consolidation and a pullback position near $100,000. However, this major adjustment is a second opportunity to enter after missing the first chance. I have emphasized this point many times; anyone who has been following me for a long time knows that a few days ago BTC pulled back to around $100,000, and today it has risen to around $110,000. This wave of market movement seems to confirm my judgment; the main uncertainty now is whether it will reverse; personally, I still lean towards a rebound.

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From the current BTC weekly trend, it is already approaching a phase high. Even if the market trend is relatively ideal, it will likely only result in a high-level sideways consolidation like at the end of 2023. In other words, prices may fluctuate back and forth within a relatively high range, allowing the market to digest emotions in this way, giving technical indicators a break from the 'overbought' state before potentially starting the next round of increases. The previously mentioned expectations of rising to 150,000 or 180,000 in June may need to be pushed back. More in line with the market rhythm is that Bitcoin will enter a roughly two-month adjustment or consolidation phase in June and July, with real upward movement likely waiting until September or October. That period may also mark the peak of this round of the market, and once it reaches the top, there may be a subsequent high-level selling phase lasting about a month. In other words, before the weekly level turns strong and rises again, there won't be many opportunities to make money in the overall market. As for the daily level, it's even harder to judge now. If it truly follows a sideways consolidation path, there may be several 'surge' events in the short term that mislead people into thinking a breakout is imminent, but in fact, these might be traps. These rises could just be attempts to lure in more buyers, and if you're not careful and jump in, you might get trapped. When the market genuinely starts to decline, there could be a significant correction that breaks through the current consolidation 'bottom,' creating a technical pattern similar to an 'M top' that lures out short positions, potentially representing the only clear trend 'bottom-fishing' opportunity in this round of market activity. However, this decline is not an unexpected 'black swan,' but a normal market adjustment and the biggest certain bottom-fishing opportunity.

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Look at the on-chain data, Bitcoin's funds are flowing out, while Ethereum's money is quietly coming in. This is the big funds rebalancing their portfolios! They have made enough profit from Bitcoin and are now starting to ambush in Ethereum and altcoins. I observed the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap, and at least one-third have shown signs of the main force secretly accumulating—continuous bottom volume for a week, but the price is being suppressed and not rising. Isn't this clearly a signal that something is about to happen?

The market's biggest concern about the June interest rate policy has already been fully digested. The real bombshell is the potential interest rate cut signal that may be released in July. As long as the Federal Reserve hints at or even suggests a possible rate cut, those suppressed altcoins will immediately bounce back like springs! How precise is this timing? From the end of June to mid-July, it’s just enough time for the main force to complete their layout. By the time retail investors react and rush in, it will be too late!

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The liquidation of concentrated longs at 102,000 BTC last week has been completed. Over the weekend, it experienced a wide range of fluctuations due to insufficient liquidity, and we may need to wait another night for a direction to emerge. The overall exchange liquidation chart highlights two key points: the concentrated area for shorts at 107,700 and for longs at 102,700. The Hyperliquid liquidation map also shows 809 BTC waiting to be liquidated at the 108,000 position, while there are 451 BTC waiting to be liquidated at 103,500 below. Overall trends point toward a rise first and then a drop. Although there has been significant price fluctuation in the last 24 hours, the turnover has actually decreased, with most investors showing little interest in price changes; the main turnover still comes from those who chased highs in the previous period. The three giants are all quite firm, and it is estimated that they won't drop much in the next couple of days. After the pullback, we will continue to look towards 110,000!

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Currently, the market is basically quiet on days with non-farm data; it has been so stagnant that it leaves little to the imagination, just sideways, waiting for non-farm data to provide direction. Macroeconomically, last night the U.S. released several data points. The first is the ADP employment data for May, which showed that only 37,000 jobs were added, significantly less than the expected 110,000, directly triggering Trump's reaction, calling on Powell to immediately cut interest rates, saying Europe has cut rates 9 times this year while the U.S. hasn't done it once.

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The concentration of Bitcoin chips has soared, or is brewing a new round of volatility!

Recently, Bitcoin has continued to oscillate around the $105,000 range, with the overall market performing relatively gently, but on-chain data reveals a concerning trend—chip concentration is rapidly rising.

Data shows that in just the past 10 days, the concentration of Bitcoin chips has risen from a low of 5.3% to 10.6%, showing a clear acceleration trend. If this trend continues, it is expected to break through the sensitive threshold of 15% in the next one to two weeks, leading to a structural market adjustment.