Crypto-小马

The Sui ecosystem has recently seen a resurgence in popularity, with TVL increasing by 40% over the week to reach $1.7 billion, and most DEX trading volumes have significantly improved.

The Sui Dubai conference is about to be held, and projects within the ecosystem (such as WAL, DEEP, BLUE, TURBOS) are clearly benefiting.

Intensive positive news will be released before and after the conference; in the short term, attention should be paid to the sustainability of TVL and the subsequent user growth performance. Sui may be about to experience a wave of recovery.

I believe that the remaining time before the interest rate cut in June will fluctuate broadly in the range of 80,000 to 100,000. After the interest rate cut in June, it will break through the previous high and reach around 120,000. There will be a significant correction in May, likely dropping to 90,000 or even below 85,000, which will be the last opportunity to buy the dip. After the correction, it will quickly rebound and start a significant bull market trend, likely reaching around 150,000 by July 2025. In August, it will start to correct down to the 100,000 range, and will consolidate until September, when the final round of increases will start. In October, it will rise to around 200,000 and peak, marking the end of the entire bull market cycle. I believe that due to the policies of the Americans, the probability of the next cycle's bull market dropping below 50,000 is very low.

The performance of ETH in this cycle is too weak. I hold some Ethereum and did not expect it to lag behind BTC. After the interest rate cut, the subsequent performance of ETH will be similar to BTC, with the peak occurring a few days later than Bitcoin. It will peak at 8,000 in October 2025, with the overall trend linked to Bitcoin.

Strong altcoins will not drop below the correction level from March and will continue to break upward, while weak altcoins will still create new lows during BTC corrections. Attention can be paid to several sectors of altcoins: AI, meme, L1, and RWA; these sectors of altcoins are likely to be the main targets for speculation.

In September 2025, if Bitcoin shows a mid-term peak signal, besides BTC, I will liquidate all altcoins, including ETH, and convert everything into Bitcoin, or allocate a small portion to buy strong coins that correlate with BTC and some local hot altcoins. I suggest that friends sell and cash out half, leaving the other half to prepare for the next trend.

Optimistic about $ETH's Core

Many people believe that ETH is inflationary because stakers can earn newly issued coins. But I don't see it that way; in fact, ETH is fundamentally deflationary, or even strongly deflationary.

Why? Because the issuance of ETH is not a free gift to any institution; as long as you hold the coins, you can stake them and earn rewards yourself. The staking return rate is generally greater than or equal to the inflation rate of ETH, meaning that as long as you participate in staking, your overall coins are 'outpacing' the issuance rate.

Moreover, a portion of ETH is burned with each transaction, further reducing the supply. So sometimes, ETH is in a net deflationary state.

By the way, this mechanism is somewhat similar to earning interest by buying US Treasury bonds with US dollars.

Based on this logic, ETH actually has the potential to become a stronger store of value than BTC. In the future, as market understanding deepens, there might be:
More and more people buying ETH → Staking rate increases → Dapp ecosystem explodes → Burning intensifies → Forming a super strong flywheel.

As for the field of smart contracts, currently, new public chains like Solana and Sui are indeed more flexible in scenarios like chain games and social applications where security requirements are not as high. But ETH is not incapable of efficiency; it has deliberately chosen a safer and more decentralized path.

In my view, the most important aspects of smart contracts are security and stability. If you only want performance, you might as well use Web2 directly.

At present, no other public chain can surpass the degree of decentralization of ETH. In the future, it doesn’t necessarily have to compete with new public chains for end-user customers; taking a B-end approach with financial core + L2 infrastructure also has great imaginative space. Personally, I am very optimistic about ETH; just give ETH a little more time and also give yourself a little time.

Current Hot Topics

1. Meme Coin Rebound: $Trump leads the way, with $pengu, $bonk, $turbo, and $pnut following

2. AI Sector Rebound: $ai16z, $aixbt and other oversold rebounds, with weekly gains covering March's losses

3. Solana Chain Hotspots;
$house (real estate hedging project) FDV skyrocketed to over 55M. BONK's new platform #lestbonk FDV dropped from 30M to 10M, beware of short-term FOMO risks

4. Stablecoin Growth; USDT (14.7 billion), USDC (62 billion) market cap continues to rise, indicating capital inflow. CEX Operations: $alpaca uses a contract fee rate of -2% for one hour to drive up spot prices, squeezing the shorts

Bull market SOL target is $1000, which is 6 times the current price. If you want to make a steady profit, just buy SOL.

Solana is known for its high speed, low transaction fees, and scalability, which attracts more and more developers and projects. Recently, there have been reports that the RockawayX fund has injected $125 million into the Solana ecosystem, which will help further develop the ecosystem. MagicBlock has also raised $7.5 million to build faster applications on the Solana blockchain.

The applications of Solana in the DeFi and NFT fields continue to grow, attracting a lot of attention. Asset management companies like Franklin Templeton have applied to track the spot price of Solana with an ETF, indicating increased institutional interest in Solana. The CME Group has also launched Solana futures products, which are seen as an important step towards the approval of a Solana spot ETF by the SEC. Bull market SOL target is $1000, which is 6 times the current price. If you want to make a steady profit, just buy SOL.

Federal Reserve officials spoke yesterday about a possible interest rate cut in June, which is essentially a done deal according to institutional expectations. This means that next month is likely to see a significant rise, making the end of this month the right time to position oneself, especially with the possible altcoin season. This wave of popular altcoins has basically doubled or more; coins like fartcoin and ALCH have seen several times growth, and it's time to start looking for the next targets.

In terms of sectors, it still feels like what was mentioned before: BTC ecosystem, AI, and blockchain games, etc. The BTC ecosystem mainly involves mainstream coins, which have doubled in value. Smaller market cap AI and blockchain games can be a focus, especially the popular ones that have surged recently. If they pull back at the end of the month, it will be a good time to position oneself, especially those with backing and recognition, like fartcoin, ALCH, and zerebro.

Additionally, pay close attention to VIRtual, auction, and BIGTIME. VIRtual and BIGTIME, which are newly listed on Binance, have strong support, and they have dropped 90% from their peak, with lower market caps and stronger growth potential.

Tomorrow is the weekend, and the big coin is likely to be in a volatile market. This could be an opportunity for both mainstream and altcoins. Although some altcoins have surged recently, the altcoin season has not truly arrived yet. Varieties like Auntie are still at relatively low positions. Let's see if they will go wild and rebound over the weekend. If there is no rebound and the big coin corrects next month, other varieties won't be able to rise either. Therefore, I do not recommend shorting mainstream and altcoins to avoid being unable to withstand the rebound. There are only 5 days left to close the monthly line, and there won't be too much correction this month. Be patient and wait for high point signals to emerge!

In June and July, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, and during that time, all cryptocurrencies will rally. Personally, I believe there won't be any particularly large movements in May, but a golden pit may appear, and at that time, just boldly scoop up the bottom! From a timing perspective, at the beginning of May, the tariff issues may need to be revisited, and coupled with the fact that the U.S. stock market has entered earnings season, many companies will lower their future earnings expectations (forward EPS). This could likely lead to a drop in the U.S. stock market. If the big coin falls along with the U.S. stock market around 85,000, that might be a good buying opportunity for a pullback. However, this is predicated on the condition that the big coin really does fall with the U.S. stock market.

As we gradually approach June and July, Trump will start implementing the second phase of the 'deregulation + domestic tax cuts' policy. Once this policy comes out, in the third quarter, those risk assets denominated in U.S. dollars may show a trend of strengthening. This would be a significant positive for the big coin and could strongly drive the big coin to initiate a major upward trend.

Trump will still pump the market, after all, this is the currency he issued as president. If it goes to zero directly, it means he lacks vision. If Trump's currency doubles, don't be greedy and take the profit.

In June and July, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, and at that time, all cryptocurrencies will pump. Personally, I don't think there will be any significant moves in May, but there will be a golden buying opportunity. At that time, just boldly buy the dip! #比特币市值排名

As a well-established public chain, ADA is a very stable investment target. A public chain will not go to zero, and there are many developments on it. The fundamentals are very strong, and it is basically possible to increase by 2-5 times in the future. You can take advantage of the current opportunity to position yourself!

You can buy at the bottom, but don't buy recklessly!

Recently, the altcoin scene has been quite lively, with several obscure coins suddenly rising in response to trends, especially those that had previously plummeted to 'floor prices'. Now, they are starting to rebound alongside the leading coins. However, it's important to note that the actual leading coins haven't increased much; instead, the metaverse concept coins promoted by Binance are on the rise—most of these coins were issued during Binance's promotional activities and had previously dropped over 90%. Now, they are suddenly experiencing a resurgence. But upon closer inspection, it becomes clear that the actual buying volume for these coins is quite low, resembling more of a manipulation by a few individuals rather than a broad-based investment by the masses. Has Binance's influence shifted from launching new coins to trading old ones?

My advice is to be cautious about chasing after the metaverse coins that have already increased in value. The overall market activity is currently subdued, and this localized surge could dissipate within a few days. If you're looking to profit from short-term fluctuations, it's best to wait for a clear collective upward signal before making a move. Observe whether other sectors, such as AI coins, Meme coins, or DeFi coins will follow suit. I particularly want to mention Meme coins: although they carry high risks, the rules for these coins are simple and transparent, allowing anyone to participate, which makes the market fairer. Some investment institutions are being pushed into a corner, which may be related to the increasing popularity of Meme coins.