In the new week, the global crypto market will enter a high-risk phase. Bitcoin, as a market barometer, will face multiple catalysts this week. From the intensive disclosure of corporate earnings, to the release of key economic data in the U.S., and the potential passage of Arizona's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, the battle between bullish and bearish forces in the market will intensify.
This week, the BTC market will face multiple variables. First, the earnings reports of the four major tech companies and Bitcoin 'loyal supporter' MicroStrategy (MSTR) will be released sequentially. MSTR is under close attention for its large holdings of BTC, and its earnings report will directly impact the market's confidence in BTC. Secondly, the U.S. first-quarter GDP and March PCE price index data will be revealed. As core indicators of measuring economic growth and inflation, these two data points will trigger fluctuations in the dollar, which will in turn affect BTC prices.
Meanwhile, Arizona's Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act will be the biggest highlight of the week. In the early hours of Tuesday, Beijing time, the bill will undergo a third reading and may enter the voting stage. If passed and approved by the governor, Arizona will become the first state in the U.S. to include BTC in its state financial reserves. According to the bill, state agencies can use up to 10% of their finances or pension funds to purchase BTC. Although the scale of funding is limited, the historical significance of this policy is comparable to the launch of a spot ETF and will inject new vitality into the BTC market.
It should be clarified that Arizona's BTC reserve is entirely different from Trump's national strategic reserve plan. Trump's plan aims to retain the existing BTC inventory in the U.S. without increasing the federal budget deficit. In contrast, state reserves allow direct use of public funds to purchase BTC, which will bring tangible incremental demand to the market. Although the short-term impact is limited, in the long term, its supportive role for BTC prices should not be underestimated.
From on-chain data, the Bitcoin market showed a lackluster performance over the weekend, with both trading volume and turnover rate at low levels, indicating low player participation. Currently, the range between $92,000 and $97,000 is an important support and resistance area. This range has a high concentration of chips, with both frequent trading by short-term players and passive holdings by long-term holders, making it a solid support level while also facing significant selling pressure.
Technical analysis indicates that Bitcoin's recent upward momentum is weak; even if there is a brief surge, its sustainability may not be strong. This week's trend may show a pattern of 'first rising then falling'. In the next two weeks, the market may experience a certain degree of correction, but the extent is expected to be limited. For long-term players, this correction may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.