Bitcoin has already made history: the U.S. has recognized Bitcoin spot ETFs, mainstream institutions and listed companies have started to embrace it, and global belief is gradually forming.
Even sovereign funds and centennial funds are accumulating Bitcoin, and Trump has even issued an executive order to include Bitcoin in U.S. strategic reserve assets.
But this is just an appetizer; the real money-making opportunities lie ahead.
Bitcoin's next big opportunity is approaching. Today, let's break down this opportunity together.
Why do Bitcoin and U.S. stocks seem tied together?
Many people feel that the price movements of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are highly correlated. But is that really the case? In fact, this is an illusion.
The fluctuations of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks are not a direct causal relationship but are driven by a common force behind them: global liquidity.
What is global liquidity? Simply put, global liquidity is like the ocean; when the water rises, all ships (U.S. stocks, Bitcoin) will be lifted.
From 2020 to 2022, global liquidity surged (M2 grew by 20%), Bitcoin skyrocketed from $10,000 to $69,000, and the S&P 500 rose by 40%.
So it is not U.S. stocks driving Bitcoin, but rather the tide of global liquidity that is pushing them both up.
What exactly is global liquidity? Why is it so important?
Global liquidity refers to the flow of funds available worldwide for investment, trading, and consumption.
Researcher Michael Howell proved through data analysis (Granger causality test) that global liquidity directly affects Bitcoin prices, rather than U.S. stocks affecting Bitcoin.
Over the past decade, the U.S. has dominated global liquidity through massive fiscal deficits, borrowing and spending.
This has made dollar assets (such as U.S. stocks and tech stocks) the preferred choice for global funds, which incidentally has pushed up Bitcoin's price. However, this pattern is now changing.
How will Trump's policies change the global liquidity landscape?
After Trump took office, he proposed several policy goals:
Spending less in dollars: By implementing tariff policies, reducing the U.S. trade deficit with foreign countries means fewer dollars for foreigners, and global fund flows will be reallocated.
Pushing the dollar weaker: Depreciating the dollar relative to other currencies encourages funds to flow to other countries.
Forcing other countries to print money: Other countries (Japan, Europe) may also increase deficits and print more money to cope with the trade war.
De-dollarization: Global funds may reduce their reliance on dollar assets (U.S. bonds, U.S. stocks).
These changes will lead to a significant shift: the dominance of global liquidity will shift from the U.S. monopoly to a multi-centered drive.
Funds will withdraw from U.S. stocks and bonds, flowing into assets in other countries, such as foreign stock markets, bonds, and even gold and Bitcoin.
Why has gold skyrocketed while Bitcoin has not yet exploded?
Recently, gold prices have hit new highs because it is viewed as a traditional safe-haven asset.
Under the trend of de-dollarization, funds are beginning to flow into gold. However, Bitcoin, as a more flexible and borderless asset, has not yet fully taken off.
Why? Because the market still views Bitcoin as a high-risk asset, and its correlation with U.S. stocks temporarily suppresses it.
But once the game of global liquidity changes, Bitcoin's unique advantages will become apparent.
What is Bitcoin's unique advantage?
Bitcoin has several characteristics that make it very suitable for embracing this global liquidity restructuring:
1. Cannot be taxed: Bitcoin does not belong to any country and is not subject to tariffs.
2. Globally accepted: It can freely flow across the globe; wars and sanctions cannot stop it.
3. Directly reflects global liquidity: The price of Bitcoin can directly reflect the flow of global funds, not just look at the U.S. market.
In contrast, gold is the wealth of the old generation, while Bitcoin is more like the money of the future. It is tailor-made for the global fund reshuffle!
Can Bitcoin really decouple from U.S. stocks?
I believe that the decoupling of Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is happening.
Recent data shows that the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is increasing, while its correlation with U.S. stocks is weakening.
If global money no longer revolves solely around the U.S., such as flowing into China, India, and the Middle East, Bitcoin will no longer have to look at U.S. stocks and will become an independent global asset.
Once the market recognizes Bitcoin breaking out into an independent trend, its price may accelerate.
The opportunity for Bitcoin is not just to double in price. I am not only watching how much Bitcoin rises in the short term but rather looking at the big opportunities it brings. Once the global economy stabilizes, Bitcoin may be the first to surge.
This is not just a simple price increase, but a status upgrade.
Bitcoin will transform from a speculative asset to a necessity: when sovereign funds, pension funds, and multinational corporations hoard Bitcoin as digital gold, it will have independent liquidity support.
Bitcoin will also become a global high-beta asset: it does not belong to any one country, but is the only neutral asset in the next generation of capital structure, capable of capturing changes in global risk preferences.
What will accelerate Bitcoin's globalization?
One major strategy is globally-focused ETF products.
If Bitcoin is included in the ETFs of more countries' pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, its price will no longer depend on the U.S. market (like Nasdaq's opening hours), but will trade globally 24/7, truly becoming a world asset.
Will Bitcoin's decoupling go smoothly?
The decoupling of Bitcoin from U.S. stocks is a trend, but the process will not be simple, nor will it be quick.
To fly solo completely, two preconditions need to be met:
1. Decentralization of global liquidity: Global funds cannot rely solely on the U.S.; there must be contributions from China, India, the Middle East, and even Web3.
2. Transitioning from a speculative asset to a strategic asset: More institutions and countries need to regard Bitcoin as digital gold, rather than just a short-term speculative tool.
This process will not be smooth; there may be setbacks, but it is an inevitable path for Bitcoin to reach one million dollars.
Summary
Bitcoin has a high probability of rising to one million dollars because it seizes the opportunity of a global fund reshuffle.
The U.S. debt crisis and Trump's policies will make the dollar less attractive, leading funds to flow into non-dollar assets like gold and Bitcoin.
The future of Bitcoin is not just about skyrocketing prices, but a major status turnaround. Once it transforms from a speculative asset into a globally essential asset, one million dollars each may soon become a reality.
Do you think Bitcoin can rise to one million dollars? Feel free to leave a comment to discuss.