The crypto market has officially entered a Bitcoin season. In April 2025, less than 30% of the top altcoins outperformed BTC over the last 90 days — a key criterion in the Altcoin Season Index.
At the same time, Bitcoin broke the barrier of $90,000, driven by institutional flows and a global climate of economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the overall market sentiment is improving after the sharp decline, according to the Fear & Greed index, currently around 50 points.
For those who closely monitor the sector, the central question now is: are the signs of a new AltSeason emerging, or are we still far from this capital rotation?
BTC dominance as a compass for cycles
Historically, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is one of the main indicators to identify the transition between so-called Bitcoin Seasons and Altcoin Seasons. Currently, BTC dominance has surpassed 64%, its highest level since mid-2020. This advance indicates that capital is predominantly concentrated in Bitcoin, to the detriment of alternative assets.
This type of movement usually suggests two distinct paths: either the Bitcoin valuation cycle continues strongly while altcoins remain in a consolidation phase, or BTC is approaching a peak in dominance, which, historically, tends to open space for a capital rotation towards altcoins.
This second hypothesis has precedents — in cycles like those of 2017 and 2021, similar movements marked the beginning of significant highs for alternative assets. However, so far, technical signals still do not point to an immediate reversal of BTC dominance, indicating that institutional investors continue to prioritize safety in the face of global macroeconomic instability.
Altcoin Season Index: the thermometer of capital rotation
Another important data point comes from the Altcoin Season Index, which is currently at level 16 — one of the lowest ever recorded since its inception. This index considers that we are in an altseason only when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a 90-day period. Therefore, the current scenario is far from that mark.
However, there is a recent precedent that deserves attention: in August 2024, this same index fell to similar levels, which was followed by a significant appreciation in infrastructure tokens, artificial intelligence projects, and real-world tokenized assets.
The current moment, therefore, can be viewed from two perspectives: on one hand, there is clear risk aversion and capital concentration in BTC; on the other, this exact configuration has previously preceded bullish cycles in altcoins.
Macro environment and regulation: the headwinds
The global macroeconomic context currently imposes the greatest barriers to a broad altseason. The maintenance of restrictive monetary policies by central banks — especially the Federal Reserve — has drained liquidity from the markets, which directly penalizes higher volatility and lower capitalization assets, such as altcoins.
At the same time, the US is undergoing regulatory restructuring that increases market caution. The closure of the crypto unit in the Department of Justice and the replacement of leadership at the SEC create an environment of regulatory uncertainty, particularly for assets linked to DeFi, DAO structures, and tokenized governance models. This type of uncertainty tends to discourage investment in altcoins in the short term, even those with solid fundamentals.
Sector narratives: where (still) there is momentum
Although the market is largely concentrated on Bitcoin, some narratives continue to gain traction and show above-average performance.
A clear example is that of tokens associated with artificial intelligence, which remain in demand, particularly projects that integrate generative models, autonomous agents, and contextual data oracles.
Another notable segment is that of so-called Real World Assets (RWAs), which also maintains a growth pace, with relevant initiatives for the tokenization of government bonds, real estate, and commodities being explored in various regulated jurisdictions. Furthermore, modular execution solutions, such as Ethereum-based L2 and L3 layers, continue to attract developers, capital, and institutional attention.
These projects, in the current scenario, tend to stand out when they present consistent fundamentals, such as sustainable revenue flow, controlled token issuance models, efficient staking with well-defined incentive mechanisms, and active technical community involvement. Asset selection, therefore, becomes more relevant than ever.
Advanced strategies: what to watch now
For investors who follow the market with technical depth, there are some indicators to be monitored closely. One of them is the reversal in Bitcoin Dominance, especially if a drop below 60% occurs, combined with an increase in trading volume of large-cap altcoins.
Another relevant signal would be a prolonged lateral consolidation movement of BTC, which historically favors capital rotation towards higher-risk assets in search of asymmetries.
Additionally, it is also worth monitoring the institutional volume directed towards Ethereum and its layer two solutions, as increases in this flow tend to precede appreciation in tokens connected to this infrastructure.
The recovery of confidence in altcoins usually manifests through the increase in TVL (Total Value Locked) in multichain DeFi applications and the improvement of metrics such as funding rates and open interest, especially when there are neutral or slightly negative rates accompanied by an increase in spot positions.
Having said all this, wait for the next altseason!
The market is undoubtedly in a Bitcoin season. This trend is reinforced by macroeconomic and regulatory factors that favor assets perceived as safer.
It is still not altseason — neither technically nor behaviorally. However, the history of previous cycles and some niche movements suggest that preparations for a new capital rotation are already underway.
The next altcoin season, when it comes, is likely to be more selective, rewarding projects with real deliverables, sustainable economic structures, and integration with active ecosystems.
The investor who understands this dynamic will be better positioned to capture asymmetric opportunities when the tide changes. After all, capital always rotates — the question is being prepared when it happens.
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Photo by catalyststuff, available on Freepik
