ALT SEASON
Fed Decision Probability
Markets overwhelmingly expect no rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. According to CME’s FedWatch tool:
• 96–97% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%
• Just 2–3% chance of a 25 bp cut tomorrow
Later meetings carry higher expectations:
• ~70% probability of a cut by September 17, 2025
• ~81% or higher by year end 2025
Why Rate Cuts Matter for Crypto
A Fed rate cut is often a catalyst for crypto markets—especially altcoins—due to these impacts:
• Increases liquidity, lowers borrowing costs
• Encourages investors to seek higher-yielding assets beyond Bitcoin
• Historically, rate cut cycles have coincided with crypto bull runs and altcoin seasons.
Likelihood of Alt Season Immediately After Tomorrow
Given today's market probabilities:
• The odds of a surprise rate cut tomorrow are very low (≈ 2–3%), so immediate altseason trigger risk is minimal.
• Even if a surprise happens, such a cut would likely only be 0.25%, so the immediate liquidity impact may be limited.
• Alt seasons usually follow a broader easing cycle, not just a single cut. Investors typically wait for multiple cuts and clearer macro signals.
Nevertheless, you cannot omit the possibility of surge and gain in alr coins.
$CHILLGUY (best for short term long with proper risk management)
$USUAL (best for long term)
$FARTCOIN (best for mid term)
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