MACRO VIEW, BEAUTIFUL?! Currently, we observe #BTC in one of the most relevant moments of its cycle. On the quarterly, BTC broke an important consolidation, validating the price discovery phase in the 🗣️ LONG TERM (months/year).

The Stochastic is still crossing upwards, sustaining positive momentum (for those starting out, it means: POTENTIAL STRENGTH). As long as there is no downward crossover, the trend remains firmly bullish on LARGER TIMEFRAMES already validated in the February posts. It is important to emphasize: corrections on smaller timeframes do not negate this long-term trend, they are just natural 'BREATHS' within the new expansion phase. But as we are analyzing daily, it is WRONG to state that we are in HIGH in the short term... for the thousandth time 😅 we will only enter HIGH ABOVE 95 (a new candle above with volume). This can be perceived by the lack of strength of the asset in breaking resistance points, even without much selling pressure.

Based on this breakout, the next natural movement of the market is the search for Fibonacci extension regions. As soon as it confirms the candle above 95, we will draw projections on larger timeframes to estimate possible targets in the medium and long term.

MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT

Despite the recent selling pressure on the S&P 500 global risk thermometer, BTC showed impressive RESILIENCE. Even with significant drops in the S&P between the end of March and early April, BTC managed to maintain its bullish structure and pull back to dynamic support zones, without losing key price regions.

This reinforces a positive scenario for #BITCOIN , typical in moments of dominance and cycle transition in the crypto market. WHICH REINFORCES ALTSEASON.

DOMINANCE DYNAMIC

In the current cycle, BTC:

  1. Went through a mandatory liquidation phase (washout).

  2. Built a structured accumulation in areas of interest for major players.

  3. Entered a dominance phase, where its movement leads the market and dictates the behavior of altcoins.

  4. The altcoins, in turn, have returned to respecting the 200-period moving average, signaling that the market is under institutional control again, preparing the ground for a new wave of appreciation.

  5. #ETH natural protagonist of altseason, retested the bottom of the fear zone I projected for you at the beginning of March at 1,500 and is trying to regain market dominance. The confirmation of this movement will be one of the clearest signals that altseason is near. NOTE!!!

MY STRATEGIC CONSIDERATIONS

It is crucial to keep focus on the present. The current scenario is building the foundations of what we will see in the coming months.

FOCUS HERE QUICKLY: Political events (such as the recent movements involving President Trump) and economic data can generate short-term volatility, but history has shown that BTC is systematically the escape asset in times of economic uncertainty.

Analyzing the last 5 years, the narrative has remained: No matter the macroeconomic shock, BTC always recovers and reaches new levels of appreciation. For understanding:

  • In bear market (declining market), this news amplifies fear and can cause violent drops.

  • In bull market (strongly rising market), the impact is more pinpointed and limited. The market tends to 'absorb' bad news because capital is flowing into risk, so corrections are buying opportunities.

At the current moment: People and funds are seeking alternative stores of value precisely because of the fear of recessions, wars, and banking crises, and BTC is one of the 'refuges'.

The FED is the factor with the most real weight in BTC's macro performance today. A rate cut is like releasing a pressure valve, and the next leg up tends to be more explosive from there. This is indeed a factor that generates greater tension; as long as the FED does not cut, BTC will continue to rise with resistance and more intense corrections.

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Therefore, I remain OPTIMISTIC and emphasize: the moment requires STRATEGY (that's why we waited so long for an entry and managed 76/74, missed 72), patience, and macro vision. We are closer to a new ALTSEASON than many imagine. OUR FOCUS HAS ALWAYS BEEN TO POSITION WELL, ACCUMULATE, AND APPRECIATE. WE KEEP GOING 🚀🚀🚀

NEXT STEPS:

  1. Fibonacci projections on the quarterly and monthly to define strategic targets.

  2. Monitor movements on smaller timeframes as entry and accumulation opportunities.

  3. Monitor the Stochastic on larger timeframes (1M/3M) for trend change signals.

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There are many new people arriving, and I am very happy with your interaction. This interaction helps in delivering posts and also motivates me to continue here. Keep contributing with likes and when possible let me know if you took the gains, to tone down the BC.S 😮‍💨😁.

Let's go together in the CLOSING 👊🏽

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