1. Headline news: US GDP disappoints
An avalanche of imports. American companies rushed to make purchases in advance to avoid higher tariffs imposed during the Trump era. The result was a record trade deficit that knocked down first-quarter GDP by 0.3%, frustrating the growth expectation of 0.4% projected by economists.
2. Labor market: weak job creation
According to ADP, the US private sector created only 62,000 jobs in April, far below the estimate of 134,000 positions. The number reinforces companies' caution in the face of an unstable economic scenario and uncertain forecasts.
3. Soaring gold distorts the numbers
Gold broke the $3,000 mark, and its influx into the US helped distort GDP statistics, according to analysts. Although temporary, the impact is a reflection of the search for safe-haven assets.
4. Inflation, interest rates, and the Fed
Inflation continues to pressure consumers and businesses. Tariffs raise product prices, the dollar remains volatile, and the Federal Reserve is cornered: maintain high interest rates to curb inflation or lower them and risk reigniting consumption in a fragile scenario.
5. China repositions itself amid the trade war
In light of the effects of tariffs imposed by the US, the president of China stated that it is urgent to create new engines of economic growth. Instead of relying on traditional sectors, with a focus on artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and cutting-edge technology.
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