Macro interpretation: The crypto market is currently exhibiting a certain resilience driven by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, regulatory policy thawing, and geopolitical maneuvering. Bitcoin has risen for five consecutive days since April 17, with prices breaking through $94,900 and briefly surpassing Google's parent company Alphabet to become the fifth largest global asset, with a market value exceeding $1.3 trillion. Behind this market movement, continuous inflow of institutional funds, breakthrough technical indicators, and shifting macroeconomic expectations form a triple support, potentially building momentum for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000.
The expectation of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve has become a core driving factor in the market. As the 'Fed's Mouthpiece' reveals details of Trump's pressure on Powell and several Fed officials publicly support a rate cut in June, the consensus on a monetary policy turning point is gradually strengthening. According to CME FedWatch data, traders' bets on the probability of a rate cut in June have risen to 58%, directly driving the three major U.S. stock indices upward, with the Nasdaq achieving a record of three consecutive days of over 2% gains for the first time since 2001. The significant correlation effect in risk assets is evident, with Bitcoin spot ETFs experiencing a net inflow of $2.759 billion over five consecutive days, setting a record for inflow during this phase, and institutional products from firms like Fidelity and Bitwise attracting over $300 million in a single day, indicating that traditional capital is accelerating its layout of crypto assets through compliant channels.
The substantial advancement of the regulatory framework has injected a strong dose of confidence into the market. The U.S. SEC held its third crypto policy roundtable on April 25, where new chairman Paul S. Atkins, along with three commissioners, discussed custody rules and investment advisor access with representatives from Fireblocks, Fidelity Digital Assets, and other institutions, marking the regulatory body’s acknowledgment of the positioning of crypto assets within the mainstream financial system. Notably, the meeting invited licensed institutions like Anchorage Digital Bank to participate, implying that the SEC may adjust its regulatory approach by classifying cryptocurrencies uniformly as securities. Under expectations of a regulatory thaw, the Bitcoin options market has become unusually active, with the open interest for $95,000 call options increasing by 47% week-on-week, and some institutions have even begun to position for deeply out-of-the-money contracts at $120,000, indicating that the derivatives market has already priced in the breakout.
Geopolitical maneuvering and the demand for asset diversification provide long-term support. Although China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has explicitly denied that the U.S. and China are engaging in tariff negotiations, Trump's recent suspension of the promise to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese goods has still sparked market speculation. Some institutions analyze that global dollar asset holders are accelerating the reconstruction of investment portfolios, as the 18% rise in gold this year resonates with Bitcoin's strong rebound, reflecting a shift towards safe-haven assets amidst the instability of sovereign currency credit systems. Data shows that Bitcoin has surpassed the 23.6% Fibonacci key resistance level at $87,045, and the 21-week moving average has completed a bullish-to-bearish conversion, presenting typical bullish features. From the perspective of capital flow, Grayscale's GBTC has ended a continuous three-month outflow, with a net purchase of $120 million in a single week, indicating that even long-term holders are regaining confidence in the current valuation level.
Short-term market should be cautious of technical pullbacks triggered by overheated sentiment. The greed index has risen to around 75, and the derivatives funding rate has reached a three-month high, with some profit-taking occurring around $94,500. However, three significant positive signals remain on the macro level: firstly, the Federal Reserve is highly likely to maintain the current interest rates in the May meeting, and the policy vacuum favors the continuation of risk appetite; secondly, the supply tightening effect post-Bitcoin halving has not fully manifested, with miner selling pressure dropping to a yearly low; lastly, a virtual asset ETF is about to be listed in Hong Kong, which is expected to strengthen liquidity during the Asian trading session. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's market value surpasses traditional giants like Meta and Berkshire, it often accompanies a shift in market perception, and this round of market movement may become a key turning point for institutions to shift from 'optional' to 'essential' allocations.
For the future market, Bitcoin needs two catalytic conditions to break through $100,000: firstly, U.S. inflation data must fall short of expectations, reinforcing the necessity for rate cuts; secondly, the SEC must release a clear regulatory framework following the May meeting to eliminate compliance barriers for institutions entering the market. The current market has entered a 'self-fulfilling expectation' phase, where any marginal positive news could trigger FOMO sentiment. It is suggested to view $87,000 as a watershed for bulls and bears; if the weekly close is above this level, the mid-term upward space is expected to open up to the $120,000-$130,000 range. This asset revolution driven by shifts in monetary policy, regulatory breakthroughs, and geopolitical restructuring is reshaping the value coordinate system of global capital markets.
Data analysis:
Bitcoin's price has recently achieved a key breakthrough, rising strongly from $85,000 to the $94,000 range, with weekly volatility expanding to 28%, setting a new high for this phase.
Coinank data shows that the derivatives market is simultaneously exhibiting a volume-price resonance, with the trading scale of futures on leading exchanges significantly recovering. The April contract volume reached $1.049 trillion, a month-on-month surge of 53.6%, forming a 'stepwise expansion' characteristic. The monthly trading volume on the second and third platforms surpassed $519.9 billion and $435.4 billion, respectively, with a combined liquidity increase of 78% across the three major exchanges, indicating that leveraged trading is becoming the core driving force of this market cycle.
This round of spot-futures linkage market reveals three structural changes: firstly, the ratio of Bitcoin futures open interest to spot trading volume has risen to a historical extreme of 2.7, indicating that funds are accelerating their layout through leverage; secondly, the funding rate center for perpetual contracts has increased by 0.03%, with rising long costs not suppressing opening enthusiasm, reflecting that the market is entering the early stages of irrational exuberance; thirdly, the lending rate for USDT on the main exchanges has surged to an annualized 35%, indicating that arbitrage funds are constructing long-short combination strategies. It is important to be cautious, as the current futures trading volume to market cap ratio stands at 1:1.8, a fragile balance; historical data shows that surpassing this threshold typically accompanies technical pullbacks of over 15%.
The crypto market is experiencing a 'leverage-driven bull market', which often intensifies the volatility transmission effect: on one hand, it attracts traditional quantitative funds to increase allocations, driving a 42% growth in open contracts for CME Bitcoin options; on the other hand, it may trigger liquidity fragmentation across exchanges, with some small to medium platforms already showing price deviations of over 5%. If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance in June, the excessive leverage in the derivatives market could amplify systemic risks, but in the short term, the deep improvement in futures is building momentum for breaking through the psychological barrier of $100,000.
