Will this rebound break 100,000? Or is it to lure in retail investors for harvesting?

After a strong rebound in Bitcoin on Tuesday, it has recently been in a high-level contraction and volatility for the past three days, with the greed and fear index rebounding to 52. Market sentiment has improved somewhat, but there is no FOMO.

From a technical perspective, the previous sharp decline led to panic, and the rebound to the important resistance zone of 93,000-95,000 USD has led the market to generally choose to wait and see, which is normal. The contraction also indicates a decrease in participation willingness, with both bulls and bears maintaining a short-term balance of power. The main force may be conducting tentative positions or shaking out.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the trade war is unclear, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also somewhat ambiguous. These uncertainties lead the market to prefer cautious operations, forming a pattern of contraction and consolidation.

From a psychological market perspective, after a sharp decline and then a rebound, participants have complex emotions: some are trapped at high levels, seeing the rebound as an opportunity to break free; some have just entered and are worried that 'the rebound is a prelude to a decline'; funds wanting to chase highs are also waiting for confirmation signals, such as a renewed volume increase or significant positive news; therefore, the high-level contraction and volatility have become a typical 'market sentiment game' stage.

The subsequent market trend is mainly in two directions: horizontal consolidation to 'build new support' or continued decline for shaking out; in the short term (within a week), it may be the former. If the horizontal consolidation continues for more than 3 days, it indicates that the main force is offloading at high levels; in the medium to long term (after May), it may lean towards the latter.

In summary: the probability of breaking 100,000 is low (and if it breaks, it might be a precursor to a major drop), while the probability of attracting retail investors is higher. The market is still fluctuating and playing with sentiment, and this halving event's deep squat is already at the end of a major shakeout.