阿根战记
2018年入行币圈，先后在公链项目方、全球头部交易所、比特币矿业、媒体等赛道工作过。
熟悉DeFi、NFT、Layer2、Meme、GameFi、ChatGPT、BRC20 等热门概念和项目。
有意识的深入了解并学习区块链及数字货币行业各个板块的情况和运行逻辑、历史。看好行业未来，享受成为原住民，见高楼起的快感。
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In the past two days, BTC has continuously set new highs, followed by a significant pullback, but ETH has strongly led altcoins to continue rising; this situation hasn't occurred in a long time, as this phenomenon typically appears in a clear bull market.
However, I believe this wave of market activity is a preemptive speculation on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September.
Nevertheless, it is a significant positive that Bitcoin has paused to allow altcoins to catch up, at least indicating that Bitcoin's market cap ratio may have reached its peak, and some of the funds that have accumulated in Bitcoin will flow into quality altcoins, which is beneficial for the overall development of the market moving forward.
From a macro perspective, yesterday's CPI data was a slight positive, but it was only a little better than expected, and it neither stopped the inflationary trend caused by the trade war nor changed the expectation of no interest rate cuts by the end of July.
In the short-term market outlook, if Bitcoin stabilizes around 116,000, ETH and altcoins still have the potential to continue rising, but as mentioned before: this time the main force's counterintuitive rise could be a trial run before a big surge, and there will inevitably be a significant pullback before a larger increase;
One should not chase the rise, especially with leveraged positions. If there is a promising spot that hasn't increased much yet, then one can buy a bit, and then it's a half-position operation to take profits, waiting to buy back in when it dips.
However, I believe this wave of market activity is a preemptive speculation on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for September.
Nevertheless, it is a significant positive that Bitcoin has paused to allow altcoins to catch up, at least indicating that Bitcoin's market cap ratio may have reached its peak, and some of the funds that have accumulated in Bitcoin will flow into quality altcoins, which is beneficial for the overall development of the market moving forward.
From a macro perspective, yesterday's CPI data was a slight positive, but it was only a little better than expected, and it neither stopped the inflationary trend caused by the trade war nor changed the expectation of no interest rate cuts by the end of July.
In the short-term market outlook, if Bitcoin stabilizes around 116,000, ETH and altcoins still have the potential to continue rising, but as mentioned before: this time the main force's counterintuitive rise could be a trial run before a big surge, and there will inevitably be a significant pullback before a larger increase;
One should not chase the rise, especially with leveraged positions. If there is a promising spot that hasn't increased much yet, then one can buy a bit, and then it's a half-position operation to take profits, waiting to buy back in when it dips.
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I have been writing in the square for over a year, with 10.1k followers. I received BN's merchandise, although most of it is just for viewing, it's still considered a splash.
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Non-farm night. Bearish, the market will probably drop a bit
I still believe there will be a significant drop before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates;
but the second wave of the bull market after the fourth halving is also coming soon, the washout is nearing its end, and we are now in the stage of grabbing chips. In fact, many altcoins are at the bottom now, starting to build positions in batches is not a problem, because you can't buy at the lowest point, and you can continue to add to your position during the subsequent pullbacks.
I still believe there will be a significant drop before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates;
but the second wave of the bull market after the fourth halving is also coming soon, the washout is nearing its end, and we are now in the stage of grabbing chips. In fact, many altcoins are at the bottom now, starting to build positions in batches is not a problem, because you can't buy at the lowest point, and you can continue to add to your position during the subsequent pullbacks.
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Bitcoin fell and then rose yesterday, overall still fluctuating within the range; technically, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have started to widen, increasing volatility may require a directional choice. Additionally, the rebound lacks volume, which necessitates caution against false breakouts; the daily chart shows continued shrinking volatility, high-level stagnation, and shrinking trading volume, indicating weak market willingness to chase highs, with short-term reversal risks rising.
From on-chain data, long-term holders (LTH) are firmly accumulating coins, with LTH net increasing their holdings by 800,000 BTC each month, at a cost range of $95,000-107,000, forming a strong support zone; the HODL wave shows reduced selling pressure, with the exchange's BTC proportion dropping to a historical low of 13.7%, indicating that chips are tending to be locked; Bitcoin has realized supply distribution indicators, currently at a neutral level, with bulls and bears temporarily reaching a balance, but this indicator has come down from the overbought line, meaning the strength of the bulls has weakened.
Overall, the probability of a short-term pullback is high, possibly testing $93,000-98,000, but the mid-term bull market structure remains intact. If there is a deep pullback, such as breaking $93,000 or triggering panic selling, this could actually be more beneficial for the subsequent bull market process.
From on-chain data, long-term holders (LTH) are firmly accumulating coins, with LTH net increasing their holdings by 800,000 BTC each month, at a cost range of $95,000-107,000, forming a strong support zone; the HODL wave shows reduced selling pressure, with the exchange's BTC proportion dropping to a historical low of 13.7%, indicating that chips are tending to be locked; Bitcoin has realized supply distribution indicators, currently at a neutral level, with bulls and bears temporarily reaching a balance, but this indicator has come down from the overbought line, meaning the strength of the bulls has weakened.
Overall, the probability of a short-term pullback is high, possibly testing $93,000-98,000, but the mid-term bull market structure remains intact. If there is a deep pullback, such as breaking $93,000 or triggering panic selling, this could actually be more beneficial for the subsequent bull market process.
See original
Bitcoin $BTC first lures a wave of longs. Then another drop, explode the shorts and then explode the longs;
Still the same view: Before the Federal Reserve confirms the interest rate cut in September, a sharp drop to shake out positions is inevitable. All the previous rises were just to deceive and create opportunities;
Of course, every drop is also an opportunity for those who are hoarding coins! It just depends on whether you are brave enough #
Still the same view: Before the Federal Reserve confirms the interest rate cut in September, a sharp drop to shake out positions is inevitable. All the previous rises were just to deceive and create opportunities;
Of course, every drop is also an opportunity for those who are hoarding coins! It just depends on whether you are brave enough #
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The current market has shown differentiation: the decline of BTC has a significant support from hidden orders, and the rebound is also strong, but the decline of altcoins seems bottomless, with rebounds mostly just for show.
In the short term, the rebound is nearing its end, and the possibility of a volatile decline remains mainstream.
In the medium to long term, after Powell's speech, the market believes that the probability of no interest rate cut in July has risen to 80%, so the market in July is still unlikely to improve, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 70%. If speculation on interest rate cuts is to occur, it might be more appropriate to wait until after August.
Therefore, the next month or so will still be tough days of tightening our belts; each rebound is just to cut the heads of the chives, but the decline can also be a good time to get on board. Don't be timid, and don't rush. The hard days are about to come to an end!
In the short term, the rebound is nearing its end, and the possibility of a volatile decline remains mainstream.
In the medium to long term, after Powell's speech, the market believes that the probability of no interest rate cut in July has risen to 80%, so the market in July is still unlikely to improve, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is as high as 70%. If speculation on interest rate cuts is to occur, it might be more appropriate to wait until after August.
Therefore, the next month or so will still be tough days of tightening our belts; each rebound is just to cut the heads of the chives, but the decline can also be a good time to get on board. Don't be timid, and don't rush. The hard days are about to come to an end!
See original
Bitcoin breaks through the 100,000 mark, what’s next?
Currently, external factors have a significant impact, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, the U.S. entering the war, and the potential Trump tariff war. However, looking beyond the surface to understand the essence, the current drastic decline, especially in altcoins, mainly stems from what has been repeatedly stated: there is no money in the market, no liquidity; therefore, any slight movement causes a sharp drop, and even in a stable environment, prices cannot rise significantly.
From a technical perspective, after Bitcoin's weekly chart broke below the consolidation range, breaking the 100,000 mark may just be the beginning. The current rebound is mainly due to buy orders pre-placed near 100,000 pushing the price up. There may be contention around the 100,000 mark, but the subsequent trend is still leaning bearish. The technical pattern for ETH is even worse; after five consecutive weeks of long upper shadows on the weekly chart, it has broken down, giving a sense of a storm brewing. Breaking below the 2000 mark seems inevitable.
Currently, external factors have a significant impact, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, the U.S. entering the war, and the potential Trump tariff war. However, looking beyond the surface to understand the essence, the current drastic decline, especially in altcoins, mainly stems from what has been repeatedly stated: there is no money in the market, no liquidity; therefore, any slight movement causes a sharp drop, and even in a stable environment, prices cannot rise significantly.
From a technical perspective, after Bitcoin's weekly chart broke below the consolidation range, breaking the 100,000 mark may just be the beginning. The current rebound is mainly due to buy orders pre-placed near 100,000 pushing the price up. There may be contention around the 100,000 mark, but the subsequent trend is still leaning bearish. The technical pattern for ETH is even worse; after five consecutive weeks of long upper shadows on the weekly chart, it has broken down, giving a sense of a storm brewing. Breaking below the 2000 mark seems inevitable.
See original
As expected, a significant drop occurred. I started warning about Bitcoin forming a top two weeks ago; every rise is an opportunity for short sellers!
However, looking at it now, Bitcoin hasn't actually dropped much, but altcoins are hitting new lows!
Many people in the crypto world would rather go to the futures market as gamblers than play with altcoins as fodder! Because gamblers can still win a few times, but the current altcoins have already cut off the roots of the fodder!
The market is not at the bottom right now, please be patient for a big plunge!
However, looking at it now, Bitcoin hasn't actually dropped much, but altcoins are hitting new lows!
Many people in the crypto world would rather go to the futures market as gamblers than play with altcoins as fodder! Because gamblers can still win a few times, but the current altcoins have already cut off the roots of the fodder!
The market is not at the bottom right now, please be patient for a big plunge!
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The Americans finally came to an end, and the cryptocurrency industry was implicated;
This is not the end, but the beginning of a chaotic era;
This is not the end, but the beginning of a chaotic era;
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If Bitcoin breaks through $105,000, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $1.231 billion.
Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $102,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $800 million.
It seems that there is no pressure above, so should the whales first raise the price and then drop it to capture both long and short positions!
Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $102,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $800 million.
It seems that there is no pressure above, so should the whales first raise the price and then drop it to capture both long and short positions!
See original
Bitcoin is starting to drop, heading towards the 100,000 mark;
Previously, when it was said to drop, 22 replies were basically all mocking. Seeing this, I decisively increased my short position because in the past, this situation has mostly been correct and has never failed; if there are more praises and agreements, I would instead feel uneasy;
The cryptocurrency market has always seen 80% of people losing money, and going against public sentiment can generally lead to profits! The investment market is just that counterintuitive!
The view remains unchanged: we are currently in a major correction phase, and before the Federal Reserve cuts rates again, there will inevitably be another major reshuffle; otherwise, the bull market in the second half of the year will just be a house of cards, and the upcoming market has one goal: to survive and wait for the wind to come!
Previously, when it was said to drop, 22 replies were basically all mocking. Seeing this, I decisively increased my short position because in the past, this situation has mostly been correct and has never failed; if there are more praises and agreements, I would instead feel uneasy;
The cryptocurrency market has always seen 80% of people losing money, and going against public sentiment can generally lead to profits! The investment market is just that counterintuitive!
The view remains unchanged: we are currently in a major correction phase, and before the Federal Reserve cuts rates again, there will inevitably be another major reshuffle; otherwise, the bull market in the second half of the year will just be a house of cards, and the upcoming market has one goal: to survive and wait for the wind to come!
See original
The current biggest problem is that there are too many short positions, giving the main players the motivation to rebound and eliminate the shorts!
Previously, it was said that the market might rebound due to external factors like the Israel-Palestine conflict stabilizing, but the current rebound can only be seen as completing the topping process interrupted by the Israel-Palestine conflict. In the medium term, the subsequent market still follows the path of topping and consolidation.
A decline caused by negative factors, if it does not involve capital withdrawal, will certainly have a rebound after the negative factors.
On the contrary, an increase caused by positive factors, if it does not involve capital inflow, will certainly have a decline after the positive factors.
Such news that does not involve the fundamental aspect of capital inflows and outflows only interrupts the direction of the market but does not change the trend; at most, it accelerates or delays the market.
The weekend is approaching, and if external factors remain unchanged, the fluctuations may continue until next Monday when there is a change in the market; from the market data, there are currently too many short positions, and the main players have the motivation to rebound and eliminate the shorts, but the overall direction of topping and consolidation remains unchanged.
Previously, it was said that the market might rebound due to external factors like the Israel-Palestine conflict stabilizing, but the current rebound can only be seen as completing the topping process interrupted by the Israel-Palestine conflict. In the medium term, the subsequent market still follows the path of topping and consolidation.
A decline caused by negative factors, if it does not involve capital withdrawal, will certainly have a rebound after the negative factors.
On the contrary, an increase caused by positive factors, if it does not involve capital inflow, will certainly have a decline after the positive factors.
Such news that does not involve the fundamental aspect of capital inflows and outflows only interrupts the direction of the market but does not change the trend; at most, it accelerates or delays the market.
The weekend is approaching, and if external factors remain unchanged, the fluctuations may continue until next Monday when there is a change in the market; from the market data, there are currently too many short positions, and the main players have the motivation to rebound and eliminate the shorts, but the overall direction of topping and consolidation remains unchanged.
See original
Bitcoin has fallen below 100,000, and ETH has fallen below 2,200. Currently, it seems to be just a matter of time, and these two positions are not the bottom yet;
At the end of this month and the beginning of next month, it is also possible to test 90,000–92,000 and 1,950–2,000.
Of course, if this happens, the halving bull market in the second half of the year may look even more promising!
At the end of this month and the beginning of next month, it is also possible to test 90,000–92,000 and 1,950–2,000.
Of course, if this happens, the halving bull market in the second half of the year may look even more promising!
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JD.com is going to issue a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar based on ETH!
Is this a positive for ETH?
Can Dong Ge achieve what Facebook couldn't back in the day? Or will it be a stripped-down version?
Is this a positive for ETH?
Can Dong Ge achieve what Facebook couldn't back in the day? Or will it be a stripped-down version?
See original
Last week, as Bitcoin and ETH were rising, I poured cold water on it, saying: the market is in the process of building a top, and the higher it goes, the more opportunities it gives to bears! See the chart below.
As of now, this judgment has been validated, but where will the subsequent market drop to?
I think it's highly likely that it will break 100,000, and the position of 95,000 dollars needs to withstand a wave of damage in the coming week;
Of course, at 2 AM on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its fourth interest rate decision of the year, and half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will say a few words. Currently, the outcome of the interest rate decision is basically certain: it will remain unchanged; however, Powell seems to want to sound hawkish, so the market is dropping first as a gesture!
In addition to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, there are several other major economic events this week, but the overall impact is limited.
June 18th at 17:00, Eurozone May CPI year-on-year
June 18th at 20:30, US initial jobless claims
June 19th at 19:00, Bank of England interest rate decision
Next, let the market withstand a wave of damage, then wait for time to repair it. One must still bravely build positions in batches, be bold in buying on the dips! Just wait for the golden second half of the year!
As of now, this judgment has been validated, but where will the subsequent market drop to?
I think it's highly likely that it will break 100,000, and the position of 95,000 dollars needs to withstand a wave of damage in the coming week;
Of course, at 2 AM on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its fourth interest rate decision of the year, and half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will say a few words. Currently, the outcome of the interest rate decision is basically certain: it will remain unchanged; however, Powell seems to want to sound hawkish, so the market is dropping first as a gesture!
In addition to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, there are several other major economic events this week, but the overall impact is limited.
June 18th at 17:00, Eurozone May CPI year-on-year
June 18th at 20:30, US initial jobless claims
June 19th at 19:00, Bank of England interest rate decision
Next, let the market withstand a wave of damage, then wait for time to repair it. One must still bravely build positions in batches, be bold in buying on the dips! Just wait for the golden second half of the year!
See original
Will Bitcoin continue to rise? Or will it pull back below $100,000?
In the short term, there is indeed still room for growth, but the current upward space is quite limited. One should not expect a large bullish candle or a market where thousands of troops meet; $109,700 may be the limit, and to reach this point, it must first break and stabilize around $108,300.
In the medium term, before the Federal Reserve confirms the next interest rate cut, there will still be a significant drop for a washout, and the depth of this washout will likely break below $100,000, approaching around $95,000. If this happens, that position is still a relatively optimistic price.
Of course, in the long term, the market in the second half of this year will still be relatively optimistic, with at least 1-2 opportunities to break historical highs, as expectations for rate cuts remain, and institutions represented by Wall Street are still accumulating coins. Each halving typically leads to a major bull run, and as long as the fundamentals remain unchanged, it is predictable.
ETH has performed relatively strongly during this period, but as the market oscillates over time, it is gradually weakening. The current rebound will likely break above $2,650, aiming for $2,720, but the higher it goes, the greater the risk.
Overall, Bitcoin is at the tail end of a range-bound market. After repeated ups and downs, the probability of it weakening further is greater now.
In the short term, there is indeed still room for growth, but the current upward space is quite limited. One should not expect a large bullish candle or a market where thousands of troops meet; $109,700 may be the limit, and to reach this point, it must first break and stabilize around $108,300.
In the medium term, before the Federal Reserve confirms the next interest rate cut, there will still be a significant drop for a washout, and the depth of this washout will likely break below $100,000, approaching around $95,000. If this happens, that position is still a relatively optimistic price.
Of course, in the long term, the market in the second half of this year will still be relatively optimistic, with at least 1-2 opportunities to break historical highs, as expectations for rate cuts remain, and institutions represented by Wall Street are still accumulating coins. Each halving typically leads to a major bull run, and as long as the fundamentals remain unchanged, it is predictable.
ETH has performed relatively strongly during this period, but as the market oscillates over time, it is gradually weakening. The current rebound will likely break above $2,650, aiming for $2,720, but the higher it goes, the greater the risk.
Overall, Bitcoin is at the tail end of a range-bound market. After repeated ups and downs, the probability of it weakening further is greater now.
See original
This currency, PI, is something else; its offline promotions are truly impressive. You can even see its presence at the vegetable market, where it gets the attention of seniors who want to get me into mining;
This coin will either become a legendary success or turn into the biggest scam!
Do you have PI? Do you dare to buy it?
This coin will either become a legendary success or turn into the biggest scam!
Do you have PI? Do you dare to buy it?
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ETHBreakout3.5k
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📊 Here is my live price prediction of the top coins next week 🥰🥰🥰*
Let’s break down what’s happening — and what’s coming 👇
---
*🔥 BNB* – Now: *731.24* (+2.05%)
I told you to buy at *612*, you said “it’s too risky” 😂
*Prediction:*795 next week 🚀
---
*🔥 BTC* – Now: *119,978* (+1.49%)
I screamed *BUY* at 98K, you laughed 😭
*Prediction:*125K next week 💥
---
*🔥 ETH* – Now: *3,590.98* (+7.42%)
ETH was sitting at *2,980* when I posted the chart, you hesitated 🫠
*Prediction:*3,950 incoming! 🚀
---
*🚀 XRP* – Now: *3.5950* (+17.99%)
I told you at *1.78* it’s gonna explode. Now you're chasing pumps 🤦♂️
*Prediction:*4.20 next week 🔥
---
*💎 SOL* – Now: *179.59* (+5.04%)
When it dipped to 139, you ran away 😭
*Prediction:*195 coming fast ⚡
---
*🐶 DOGE* – Now: *0.23084* (+9.05%)
I said *DOGE always bounces* at 0.18, you said it’s a meme 😹
*Prediction:*0.26 soon 📈
---
*🐸 PEPE* – Now: *0.00001371* (+3.24%)
I dropped a setup at *0.00001050*, y’all slept 😴
*Prediction:* 0.00001650 🔥
---
*🔥 ADA* – Now: *0.8502* (+13.16%)
I warned at 0.64, but y’all thought Cardano was dead 💀
*Prediction:*0.97 next week 💪
---
*🚨 ERA* – Now: *1.5388* (+669.40%)
I mentioned this gem at *0.20*. You ignored it like the rest 😩
*Prediction:* May touch $1.90 🎯
---
🔥 UNI* – Now: *9.873* (+10.76
Uniswap looked juicy at8.00, y’all passed 😂
*Prediction:* 11.20 next 📊
—
*💥 HBAR* – Now: *0.28376* (+22.59
HBAR’s breakout was clear at0.18 — now you wanna ape in 😅
*Prediction:* $0.33 on radar 📈
---
*Lesson*: Don’t chase pumps. Follow early. Turn on my alerts 🔔
Next week gonna be 🔥🔥🔥 Let’s win together 💯
$XRP
$HBAR
$SOL
#ETHBreakout3.5k #BinanceHODLerERA #PowellVsTrump
BRITNEY_S
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BinanceHODLerERA
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PowellVsTrump
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