阿根战记

On May 8th (this Thursday) at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which may result in a drop of $10,000!

It was previously mentioned that after a rebound, if BTC fluctuates at a high level for an extended period, it could indicate a situation where the main force is moderately offloading. Currently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level for 14 consecutive days and has already tested the previously mentioned range of $96,000-$98,000, but has not broken through and stabilized. Therefore, the possibility of a false breakout this time is even greater.

From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick pattern shows a head and shoulders structure, while the weekly candlestick pattern is beginning to reveal a evening star formation; however, from an overall market perspective, current on-chain data indicates a decrease in active addresses, and net outflows of BTC from exchanges, reflecting that investors are inclined to hold and wait for clearer policies.

Although it is highly probable that this meeting will maintain interest rates, given the current situation and market sentiment, as long as Powell does not clearly signal a dovish stance at the subsequent press conference, the market may respond with a significant drop. Given the extended high-level fluctuations, the decline could start at $10,000 and form the first line of defense at $85,000, and the second line of defense at $80,000.

Of course, if a dovish stance is taken, then the likelihood of a rise followed by a drop is greater, because the current situation is already quite heavy, and retail investors have not offloaded enough of their holdings. After three rounds of halving, BTC's consensus is too strong; without a punishing market, there will be no bloodied chips.

Other cryptocurrencies, even if they want to perform, also need to look at BTC's movements. Tomorrow, ETH will upgrade, but the current price is performing flat, and there are multiple large holders who have clearly stated they are giving up on ETH. Although some see this as an opportunity at this time, even if ETH continues on its path as the king of public chains, it will still need time to repair the confidence of the community that is about to collapse.

A major drop is brewing!

Last week I mentioned that after the rebound, Bitcoin $BTC has been consolidating at such a high level for so long, so the subsequent drop could be deeper, for example, testing around $80,000!

It has now touched the $96,000-$98,000 range, so the second step—big correction—can’t be far away?

In the short term (before mid-June), the market will fluctuate like this, rising and falling, to play with the mindset and make retail investors collapse and give up more chips!

And in the comments of the last tweet I posted, there were many insults and mockery, which made me realize that I was likely correct in my judgment again, because such situations have always been the case before!

Of course, every time I say a major drop is brewing, I also mention: The logic of the fourth halving market remains unchanged, so small drops mean small buys, and big drops mean big buys. At this position, as long as it drops, buying will not lead to losses! Ps: Here I’m referring to mainstream coins and leading concept coins, at least those in the top 20 or top 50 by market cap!

The script is already written: In the short term, there will be a drop!
After eight days of fluctuations, if there is a pullback, it will first break 89000, then reach 79000-80000!

Of course, in the long term, there is still the halving trend. It's hard to move in one direction throughout May; it's a big rise followed by a big fall, with ups and downs to mess with the mentality, which will force retail investors to give up more chips!

From on-chain data, about 170,000 BTC have recently been transferred from holders who have held for 3-6 months. The selling by these short-term holders may trigger price fluctuations. In contrast, long-term holders only move more than 500 BTC daily, highlighting the divergence in market sentiment.

Meanwhile, addresses holding 100-1000 BTC are accumulating at the fastest historical rate, with an annual absorption rate exceeding 300% of Bitcoin's annual issuance. The amount held by exchanges continues to decline, indicating a long-term bullish tendency.

So, after a big drop, are you brave enough to buy the dip?

The high-level trend of Bitcoin is such that it is either horizontal instead of falling or the main force is discharging at a high level!
Currently, it feels like the probability of discharging is greater, so in the new week, will Bitcoin: rise first and then fall OR fall directly?
1. If it rises first and then falls, especially if it touches the pressure range of $96,000-$98,000, then the subsequent decline might be very deep, even breaking below $80,000, because the possibility of luring in and discharging increases significantly.
2. If it falls directly, it might be milder, holding the $82,000-$84,000 range, which could be an opportunity to build positions in batches.

On May 7, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting, and it is highly likely to remain unchanged. If there are no other issues before that, the market will mainly fluctuate. If more hawkish news is released, it may break the range.

The second chart summarizes the major events in the crypto circle in May. Recently worth mentioning: on May 3, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting;
Buffett's grasp of the overall macro situation has been proven by history. Previously, he said that before the annual meeting, he would not discuss market, economic, and tariff issues with anyone; so we will wait for the 3rd meeting to see what he says;

In May, led by the Federal Reserve, a global central bank storm is starting a major change. Now there is a high expectation of interest rate cuts in the June Federal Reserve meeting. Will May see a final washout and a big drop to bring out more chips? Let's wait and see.

Will this rebound break 100,000? Or is it to lure in retail investors for harvesting?

After a strong rebound in Bitcoin on Tuesday, it has recently been in a high-level contraction and volatility for the past three days, with the greed and fear index rebounding to 52. Market sentiment has improved somewhat, but there is no FOMO.

From a technical perspective, the previous sharp decline led to panic, and the rebound to the important resistance zone of 93,000-95,000 USD has led the market to generally choose to wait and see, which is normal. The contraction also indicates a decrease in participation willingness, with both bulls and bears maintaining a short-term balance of power. The main force may be conducting tentative positions or shaking out.

From a macroeconomic perspective, the trade war is unclear, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is also somewhat ambiguous. These uncertainties lead the market to prefer cautious operations, forming a pattern of contraction and consolidation.

From a psychological market perspective, after a sharp decline and then a rebound, participants have complex emotions: some are trapped at high levels, seeing the rebound as an opportunity to break free; some have just entered and are worried that 'the rebound is a prelude to a decline'; funds wanting to chase highs are also waiting for confirmation signals, such as a renewed volume increase or significant positive news; therefore, the high-level contraction and volatility have become a typical 'market sentiment game' stage.

The subsequent market trend is mainly in two directions: horizontal consolidation to 'build new support' or continued decline for shaking out; in the short term (within a week), it may be the former. If the horizontal consolidation continues for more than 3 days, it indicates that the main force is offloading at high levels; in the medium to long term (after May), it may lean towards the latter.

In summary: the probability of breaking 100,000 is low (and if it breaks, it might be a precursor to a major drop), while the probability of attracting retail investors is higher. The market is still fluctuating and playing with sentiment, and this halving event's deep squat is already at the end of a major shakeout.

It was previously mentioned that this period would mainly consist of a consolidation and recovery market. With the strong rebound early this morning, does the market seem more optimistic? $BTC

From the actions of Bitcoin whales, since April, the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins has surged, increasing by over 60 in just over a month. This data is similar to the levels seen in November and December of last year when whale addresses also increased, during which Bitcoin experienced significant price rises.

Currently, other data shows that the number of addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoins has slightly increased, now exceeding 18,000; while the number of small retail investors holding less than 10 Bitcoins continues to decline;

The most noteworthy point is that the super whales holding over 10,000 BTC have been continuously buying, basically buying on small dips and buying heavily on big dips! It can be said that without these whales buying, Bitcoin would have likely broken new lows already.

From this data, it can be seen that Bitcoin's current price has indeed received strong support, and the main forces remain optimistic about the future. The selling by retail investors also indicates the effectiveness of the market washout.

However, can we say that the market is about to reverse and surge? I think it is too early to say! The fundamental assessment from last week still holds: the main market remains one of consolidation and recovery, with the upper limit of the rebound likely around $92,000 (plus or minus 3%).

Before mid-June, the market will likely continue to experience ups and downs, testing people's patience, and there may even be another dip before a true reversal upwards, forcing retail investors to give up more chips.
So, it’s important to maintain an optimistic outlook for the long-term market: the basic logic of the fourth halving market is still in play;

Operate with a patient and cautious attitude in the current short-term market: control leverage or use it sparingly, set good take-profit and stop-loss levels, and surviving until the end is the most important.

Trump boasts: My friend makes 2.5 billion dollars a day!
Is Trump repeatedly harvesting the retail investors along with a bunch of Wall Street tycoons?

So far, a reciprocal tariff has caused the market to surge and plummet three times:

Initially, it rose upon announcement, then fell sharply when the reciprocal tariffs for various countries exceeded expectations;

On the 7th, when the news of a 90-day tariff suspension just came out, there was a surge, but soon it was disproven, leading to another sharp decline; on that day alone, over 460,000 people faced liquidations, and it was both long and short positions that got wrecked.

On the 9th, the 90-day tariff suspension was actually implemented, causing the market to surge again, but just a day later, Bitcoin fell back to 78,000 dollars.

Whether it's the bears or the bulls, as long as they misjudge the rhythm, it's liquidation time! The market is so tough, while these Wall Street capital tycoons keep greedily harvesting the retail investors, they are feasting abundantly!

Giant whales are starting to sell off ETH!
Is ETH really going to hit $1000? $ETH

#ETH1000美元见

Continue the wave, let's see who can't hold on!
The cryptocurrency market continues to drop, let's see who dares to catch the bottom.

The trade war continues, what goes up must come down!

In the next two months, before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June determines a rate cut, the market will likely remain tough!

As previously mentioned, it is highly probable that Bitcoin will visit the 6xxx range.

Now Trump is clearly intent on causing the market and the economy to crash, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates; this is his ultimate goal, and the trade war is just a means to that end!

The biggest issue for the United States right now is: by 2025, the U.S. government must refinance $9.2 trillion in maturing debt. About $6.5 trillion will mature in June. This year, the U.S. must issue at least $12 trillion in Treasury bonds to repay old debts.

For every 1% rate cut, the U.S. can reduce its debt repayments by $80 billion each year, which is not only real money but also a remedy for Trump's economic policies.

So as long as the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, Trump will continue to stir things up, and the hardships in the crypto space will continue to torment.

The news is false! But how many people's positions are gone in the ups and downs! This industry is still too small, a little wind and waves is like a typhoon passing through.

Now that these seemingly beneficial "good news" are concentrated, I feel it's just a ploy to fool retail investors into buying in, so that the main players can sell off! Of course, you could also say that many of the main players are just big retail investors!

It has been said before that the news we can see is all filtered, with the media being the final layer of filtration.

Now, any news that does not bring real liquidity to the market can be interpreted as deception!

Unless the Federal Reserve urgently cuts interest rates, or Trump stops reciprocal tariffs, such direct benefits that bring funds to the market and alleviate risks are the real good news.

Concentrating on the purchase prices of the cryptocurrencies that friends have been asking about frequently, note: for each cryptocurrency, three reference prices are provided; the first target price has the highest probability, while the third target price might require another significant drop like on March 12 (for reference only, there are risks in the market, please be cautious!):
SOL: 81--60-35
BNB: 460--406--335
DOGE: 0.11--0.09-0.06;
SUI: 1.5--1.2--0.88
For TRUMP and PI, I cannot see the purchase price, I can only say that willing buyers can buy!

ETH and BTC have already been mentioned, no need to elaborate further; of course, you can also wait for BTC to drop to a certain level—like $65,000—before taking action.

Build positions in batches, do not expect to build positions at the lowest price! Even after buying, do not expect an immediate rise; after such a significant drop, it will take months for the market to stabilize and recover!

Of course, the worst outcome would be to experience another significant washout like on March 12, because after nearly three months of decline, there are still people calling for a bullish market, which shows how high this "consensus" is and how difficult it is for retail investors to exit!

Just in time for the violent washout during Trump's tariffs and the stock market crash, the market is quiet, and no one is calling for bullishness; the bottom of the golden pit has truly arrived.

The major crash continues! $BTC

In just over 3 hours, the U.S. stock market will open, and there may be another accelerated decline!

Previously mentioned, Bitcoin's first target of 76,000 has been reached, and ETH not only reached the first target but is just 3 percentage points away from the second target of 1,340 USD!

Currently, it seems that Trump's use of the trade war to force the market to crash, in order to pressure the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, is not without basis. #加密市场回调

The current market trend and the overall environment inevitably remind people of the major drop on March 12, 2020, caused by the pandemic! See the second image below:

Currently, we are in a downward continuation phase, a weak rebound to wash out the shorts, and then continue to decline. Since we have broken down with volume, today’s decline will not be just this little bit!

Third target: BTC to 65,000 USD, ETH to 1,120 USD, which may not be a low probability event anymore.

Finally, let me say this: every time I post, there will always be someone who mindlessly argues or attacks below, to which I will not respond: I know that the differences in understanding between people can be greater than those between humans and pigs!

Investment is the realization of your understanding; I have no obligation and no time to convince you!

But I will respond to thoughtful discussions; I welcome all fellow crypto friends to discuss and improve together, achieving financial freedom!

The storm is about to come, and the wind fills the building!
In the broader context, even top traders are just large-scale chives;

It seems that the rumor of Trump crashing the market to force the Fed to cut interest rates has been confirmed!

The Japanese and Korean stock markets have already collapsed, even gold is struggling to hold up. When the US stock market opens tonight, will the crypto market fall or continue to fall?

The $BTC starting with 7 has arrived, will the one starting with 6 be seen today?

Today is April 7, 2025! Monday

It might be another anniversary of a major crash! Please remember to take a screenshot!

After waking up from a deep sleep, the crash came faster than expected!
If the U.S. stock market continues to decline tonight, will the cryptocurrency market drop even further below the floor price, reaching eighteen floors down?
ETH has already fallen to the first target of 1550, and BTC is less than 1% away from a new low!
The entire network evaporated 10% of its market value - $250 billion disappeared overnight. How many people faced liquidation?
Since February, every time someone has been bearish, many have mocked them. So, the bottom hasn’t been reached, just like after the big crash on March 12 when no one dared to say bullish; that’s when the market really hit the bottom!

Prepare for a major crash!
The positions below for BTC are: $76000–70000–65000;
ETH is $1550—1340–1120;
As long as altcoins don't go to zero, that's good!
The time is around 9:30 PM tomorrow when the US stock market opens, and it might even drop earlier! The logic has already been explained, as shown in the second image:

Currently, the global financial environment is set to decline, and this small boat in the crypto world cannot go against the trend; we can't expect a small boat to withstand a tsunami!

Of course, I have also mentioned before that the logic of the fourth halving cycle is still in play. When the golden pit appears during the drop, will you dare to buy when it drops?

The exchange rate of ETH to BTC has dropped to 3.12, close to the historical low!

This indicates that the market is indeed panicking, and some large holders have moved a significant amount of ETH to exchanges, suggesting that a sell-off might be imminent.

So, will there be a rebound from the bottom next, or will it continue to drop, or even experience a panic-driven crash?

In February, I mentioned that the bottom of this round of ETH decline would be around 1500, but now it feels like it might not hold, so will it go to the 1350 monthly support level or to the 1100 bull-bear rotation support level? #ETH
$ETH