On May 8th (this Thursday) at 2:00 PM, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced, which may result in a drop of $10,000!

It was previously mentioned that after a rebound, if BTC fluctuates at a high level for an extended period, it could indicate a situation where the main force is moderately offloading. Currently, Bitcoin has been fluctuating at a high level for 14 consecutive days and has already tested the previously mentioned range of $96,000-$98,000, but has not broken through and stabilized. Therefore, the possibility of a false breakout this time is even greater.

From a technical perspective, the daily candlestick pattern shows a head and shoulders structure, while the weekly candlestick pattern is beginning to reveal a evening star formation; however, from an overall market perspective, current on-chain data indicates a decrease in active addresses, and net outflows of BTC from exchanges, reflecting that investors are inclined to hold and wait for clearer policies.

Although it is highly probable that this meeting will maintain interest rates, given the current situation and market sentiment, as long as Powell does not clearly signal a dovish stance at the subsequent press conference, the market may respond with a significant drop. Given the extended high-level fluctuations, the decline could start at $10,000 and form the first line of defense at $85,000, and the second line of defense at $80,000.

Of course, if a dovish stance is taken, then the likelihood of a rise followed by a drop is greater, because the current situation is already quite heavy, and retail investors have not offloaded enough of their holdings. After three rounds of halving, BTC's consensus is too strong; without a punishing market, there will be no bloodied chips.

Other cryptocurrencies, even if they want to perform, also need to look at BTC's movements. Tomorrow, ETH will upgrade, but the current price is performing flat, and there are multiple large holders who have clearly stated they are giving up on ETH. Although some see this as an opportunity at this time, even if ETH continues on its path as the king of public chains, it will still need time to repair the confidence of the community that is about to collapse.