Recently, when U.S. stocks continued to decline due to tariff concerns, Bitcoin exhibited unexpected resilience, not only resisting the decline but also rising against the trend. However, the market on April 24 presented a starkly different picture: both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices rose more than 2%, reaching recent highs, while BTC failed to follow suit, caught in a narrow fluctuation range between $91,600 and $94,500. What market logic and emotional changes are hidden behind this phenomenon?
The strong performance of U.S. stocks is mainly due to the phased easing of trade frictions between China and the United States. Recently, multiple positive news has emerged in the market: the United States announced tariff reductions on certain auto parts from Long Brother, and subsequently, Long Brother responded by lowering tariffs on certain semiconductors and components from the United States. This news has effectively alleviated market concerns about the trade war, helping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices completely recover their declines since early April.
In addition, changes in domestic policy in the United States have injected confidence into the market. There are reports that Trump has softened his stance on firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which has further stabilized player sentiment. However, the market is not without its challenges. Next week, the United States will release its first-quarter GDP data, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has once again lowered its expectations. This data will become a key variable in the complexity of market trading in May.
Compared to the fervor of U.S. stocks, the Bitcoin market appears much calmer. Although BTC prices have seen a slight correction, on-chain data shows that player sentiment remains stable. According to URPD data, on April 20, the price range of $83,000 to $85,000 gathered about 1.3 million BTC chips, forming an important support level. However, the latest data shows a significant reduction of chips in that range, while high-priced chips around $93,100 have rapidly accumulated, increasing from 260,000 on April 20 to 620,000. Additionally, the open interest in the $91,600 and $92,000 to $97,000 range is also steadily rising.
Players who have not exited after the $74,500 low show stronger holding confidence. These long-term holders are mainly non-short-term speculators, and their stable mindset provides solid support for the current market. The decline in on-chain turnover rate further confirms this trend: recent bottom-fishing short-term players have accelerated their exit, while early holders and loss players remain on the sidelines, with no panic selling in the market.
From the perspective of RSI and player behavior classification, market momentum is weakening. We categorize players into five types: firm buyers, trend buyers, new players, profit-takers, and loss surrenderers. Currently, the buying momentum of trend buyers has明显放缓, indicating a lack of strength in initiating a new trend; firm buyers have shifted from aggressive buying to partial selling, while new players are still entering the market in small amounts. Overall, low-priced chips are gradually shifting to high-priced chips, with frequent turnover but lacking sustained upward momentum.
Combining URPD data, $96,300 is a strong resistance level for BTC, while $91,600 serves as an important support level. Currently, BTC prices are repeatedly contending around $94,000; without significant positive stimulus, Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate in the range of $91,600 to $94,500 in the short term. The upcoming release of U.S. GDP and PCE data on April 30 will become a key factor influencing market sentiment.
