Old Vine Review | Fluctuation is just a transition, the storm is gaining strength
First, let’s mention a few key signals —
1️⃣ SEC will hold a crypto roundtable at 1 AM tonight. Don’t underestimate this "neutral occasion"; the new head is relatively friendly and might throw out some treats;
2️⃣ Trump continues to make noise, causing the dollar, U.S. Treasury, and U.S. stocks to collectively decouple, deciding the global ups and downs with his words every day. This Wall Street is really collapsing;
3️⃣ The Fed has basically confirmed no rate hike in May, and the "unemployment expectations" brought by high officials have brought rate cuts back to the table, overall leaning towards bullish.
How to view the market?
🔹BTC:
After three consecutive large bullish candles, it has entered a high-level fluctuation between 918-945, which is a normal technical correction — if there is no consolidation after a large bullish candle, it is actually unhealthy. Now is the "accumulation period"; fluctuations do not change the trend, wait for a pullback confirmation before continuing to surge up.
The 4-hour chart tested the 945 resistance last night; today’s focus is on whether the pullback around 918 can hold. If it breaks down, avoid temporarily; if it breaks up, it will be the last fluctuation before the breakout.
Key points: The 95-98 range is heavy pressure; a real breakout requires volume + emotional cooperation. Don't chase blindly; keep an eye on the signals from the SEC meeting at dawn.
🔹ETH:
Ethereum's rhythm is more technically oriented, currently following a standard "volume contraction pullback + moving average support" structure. The 7-day and 30-day moving averages have formed a golden cross; the daily trend is fine, and in the short term, it's just looking for support to accumulate strength.
Pay attention to the defense around 1740-1720; if it stabilizes, it’s a washout before a second upward attack; conversely, if it breaks 1700, then the bullish rhythm needs to be rearranged.
Operational strategy: For short-term trading, focus on buying low around 1740, and quickly enter and exit at 1780-1800 resistance. Consider chasing long only after confirming volume.
🔹Altcoin Direction:
As Ethereum is correcting, altcoins naturally adjust as well. The core buying point is not now, but after "Ethereum does not break 1700-1720 + volume attack", the second round of opportunities for altcoins will truly be released.
In terms of memes, affected by Trump's rhythm, capital sentiment is very active; WIF and PEOPLE have entered the pullback range, so light buying can be considered.
The AI sector continues to be strong, TAO and FET show healthy trends, LPT is pulling back around $5, and there are good short-term opportunities.
In summary:
Fluctuation is to filter out people; the real market hasn't started yet. Maintain a calm mindset, focus on structure, don’t rush, and opportunities will come to those who are patient.
