4·29｜Old Vine Review｜AI Emotion Ignition, BTC High-Position Volatility, Key Support Must Not Break
The market does not rest before May Day, three fundamental things:
1. The hawkish ETF continues the "gold-eating beast" model, with a net inflow of $590 million into BTC and $64 million into ETH; traditional funds are still buying vigorously.
2. OpenAI has introduced a new feature: you can now directly buy things on ChatGPT. This means AI is no longer an abstract concept; it is becoming practical and grounded, which adds both emotional and logical points to the AI sector, with short-term rotation expected to start.
3. The probability of the Federal Reserve remaining still in May is as high as 91.1%, and the market has already taken precautions against a "pause".
BTC:
After a pullback to 745 at the beginning of April, it made the first segment of a ten-thousand-point surge, oscillating around 86. Now it is in the second phase starting from 84, already beginning to consolidate at high positions. Technically, the K-line is currently oscillating to digest the previous gains, and it is expected that after approaching the 14-day moving average, there will be the next wave of action. As long as it does not break 92, repeatedly challenging above 95, washing out the trapped positions from February, there is still hope for further gains.
On the 4-hour chart, 955 is a hurdle; short-term funds tend to take profits here. However, each time it pulls back, the low points are rising, indicating a healthy adjustment. From an operational perspective, support is seen at 936-926, while resistance is at 954-964.
ETH:
Currently moving sideways in the 1750-1820 range, a typical accumulation phase. The movement is symmetrical, and the key is whether the 1720 support can hold; if it does, there is still a chance to push towards 2100. On the 4-hour chart, there are “spike patterns,” with bulls and bears testing the bottom line, indicating strong intent from the main players. If there can be a volume breakout later, a new trend will start. During the day, support is at 1780-1760, and resistance is at 1810-1830.
AI Sector:
OpenAI's e-commerce implementation connects the "AI → Scenario → Revenue" chain, further strengthening the sector's logic. Short-term sentiment has already started, focusing on the main line of FET + AGIX, while RNDR looks towards infrastructure, and TAO remains a belief coin hovering at high levels, albeit with high volatility.
Additionally, three supplementary coins to watch:
WLD: Recently oscillating upwards, short-term support around 1.09; if it holds, look for a recovery towards 1.3; defensive position at 0.98.
ARKM: Consolidating, support around 0.57; if it stabilizes, there is a short-term chance to challenge 0.71-0.85, with a defense at 0.5.
PHB: Stronger structure, if it pulls back to 0.55 without breaking, continue to favor bullish outlook, target above 0.71; defensive position at 0.51.
