Recently, the cryptocurrency market has shown robust performance in a complex and changing macro environment, with Bitcoin recording gains for two consecutive days. Although Trump's statements on East-West tariffs once triggered market tensions, players' panic over tariffs has gradually diminished, and market sentiment has become calmer. Meanwhile, the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have stalled, with Zelensky clearly rejecting the idea of ceding Crimea for peace, which the White House spokesman expressed regret over, stating that his choice was 'misguided'. The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty casts a shadow over the global market, but the crypto market seems to have learned to move forward through storms.
Although the US stock market maintains an upward trend, the rate of increase has narrowed, partly due to Goldman Sachs significantly lowering its US GDP growth forecast for the first quarter of 2025 from 0.4% to 0.1%. The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates that tariff concerns are leading to increased uncertainty in the US economy, with signs of slowing economic activity in some regions. The cautious attitude of businesses towards future investments further weakens market momentum, resulting in insufficient upward momentum in the US stock market.
From the Bitcoin data, although the price continues to rise, the market activity has not significantly increased. The turnover rate shows that short-term players are the main force in the current market, while early holders and loss-making players mostly choose to wait and see, not making significant entries due to the price increase. On-chain data further reveals a significant reduction in chips at the $83,000 price level, but this is mainly caused by internal transfers on platforms rather than large-scale sell-offs. The support levels at $91,600 and $88,000 remain rock-solid, indicating that market confidence at these price levels has not been shaken.
After yesterday's rise in Bitcoin prices, a new price gap appeared in the CME Bitcoin futures market, ranging between $88,000 and $91,600. Although the 'gap theory' carries a certain mystique in the market, historical experience shows that Bitcoin's gaps are often filled in the short term, and this phenomenon deserves close attention. Meanwhile, the chip distribution in the $92,000 to $97,000 range is extremely solid, and the continued influx of new chips further strengthens the support in this area, indicating its attractiveness as a market 'value lowland'.
In the current environment, there are no significant bearish factors in the Bitcoin market, and it is highly likely to maintain a high-level consolidation trend in the short term. However, the momentum after consecutive rises has weakened, making the possibility of continuing to rise significantly this week relatively low. The market may digest the recent gains through sideways movement or slight corrections. A pullback may occur next week, and the support levels at $91,600 and $88,000 will become key observation points.