I. Comprehensive Analysis of Multi-Period Technical Patterns
1. Moving Average System and Price Position
• 4-Hour Chart:
• Moving Average Arrangement: MA(5) 1,769.76 → MA(10) 1,782.27 → MA(20) 1,790.00, price continues to be pressured below MA(20), bearish arrangement is clear.
• Trend Signal: MA(5) crosses below MA(10) forming a death cross, price rebounds to MA(10) then faces resistance and falls back, medium to long-term trend is bearish.
• 1-Hour Chart:
• Moving Average Entanglement: MA(5) 1,769.89 → MA(10) 1,773.70 → MA(20) 1,777.64, price repeatedly testing MA(10) resistance (1,773.70), short-term rebound momentum is lacking.
• Key Signal: MACD histogram continues to shrink (DIF 1.2M vs DEA 1.4M), bearish pressure intensifies.
• Daily Chart:
• Moving Average Suppression: MA(20) 1,785.00 → MA(50) 1,800.00, price is below the moving averages, the daily level bearish trend continues.
2. Support and Resistance with Volatility
• Key Resistance:
• 4-Hour Level: MA(10) 1,782.27 → Previous High 1,790.00 (psychological resistance).
• 1-Hour Level: 1,773.70 (recent high).
• Key Support:
• 4-Hour Level: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level 1,762.50 → Daily MA(50) 1,800.00 (strong support).
• Volume Validation: Dense trading near 1,762.50, a drop below may trigger stop-loss selling pressure.
• Volatility Indicator:
• ATR (14): Average True Range of 4-hour chart is 37.5 points, 1-hour ATR 18.3 points, current volatility is at a medium-high level.
3. Candlestick Combinations and Reversal Signals
• 4-Hour Chart:
• Shooting Star Pattern: The latest candlestick closed with a long upper shadow (high 1,790.00→close 1,782.27), indicating dominant selling pressure.
• Three Methods of Decline: Three consecutive bearish candlesticks cover the previous day's gains, continuing the bearish trend.
• 1-Hour Chart:
• Evening Star: After the rebound high of 1,773.70, it closes with a 'inverted hammer + bearish candlestick' combination, reversal signal fails, confirming continuation of the decline.
• Fractal Indicator:
• The 1-hour chart shows a 'lower low' fractal (1,769.76→1,771.29→1,773.70), increasing the risk of support failure.
4. Capital Flow and Buying Power
• Volume Distribution:
• 4-Hour Chart: During the rebound period (1,773.70→1,790.00) volume shrinks to 1.2 million lots, while the decline segment (1,790.00→1,762.50) expands to 4.8 million lots, bears dominate.
• Order Flow Analysis: Depth chart shows sell orders accumulating above 1,782.27 (65% of pending orders), bulls lack breakthrough momentum.
• Funding Rate:
• Current funding rate -0.03%/hour, reflecting dominance of bears in the futures market, leveraged capital accelerates trend continuation.
• Spot ETF Data:
• Yesterday, net outflow of $23.88 million, only Grayscale recorded net inflow, showing institutions are accumulating at low prices, but retail selling pressure continues.
5. Position and Risk Control Status
• Hypothetical Scenario:
• Holding Long Positions: If current position has floating losses, it is recommended to stop loss and open a short position (logic explained below).
• Short Position Holders: Holders can maintain until target level, trailing stop dynamically adjusted.
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II. Trading Instructions
1. Trading Direction: Open Short
2. Execution Reason:
• Trend Resonance: 4-hour main downtrend + 1-hour rebound exhaustion + daily moving average suppression, multi-period bearish alignment resonance.
• Momentum Validation: Shooting Star + Evening Star pattern confirms selling pressure, funding rate and order flow strengthen bearish logic.
• Risk-Reward Ratio: Stop loss at 1,782.27 (above resistance), take profit at 1,762.50 (Fibonacci support), profit-loss ratio 1:3.2 (stop loss 12.3 points, take profit 38.4 points).
• Volatility Adaptation: 1.5 times ATR (18.3 points) (27.5 points) covers the stop-loss range, avoiding noise interference.
3. Confidence Level: 9 (based on multi-period trend and volume validation).
4. Stop Loss Price: 1,782.27 (4-hour MA(10) + dense order flow area).
5. Take Profit Price: 1,762.50 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level + daily MA(50) suppression).
6. Trailing Stop Percentage: 0.0007 (activated after price drops below 1,769.76, locking in 7% retracement profit).
III. Supplementary Strategy Logic
Key Validation Point: Bullish Counterattack: If price breaks above 1,782.27 with increased volume, need to stop loss and observe.
Bearish Acceleration: After dropping below 1,762.50, target looks down to 1,745.00 (Fibonacci extension level).
Market Environment: Macroeconomic Bearish: Fed interest rate hike expectations rise, cryptocurrency market liquidity shrinks, technical and fundamental factors resonate downward.
Cryptocurrency Linkage: BTC/USDT exchange rate drops below key support, panic sentiment spreads in the derivatives market.
IV. Operational Suggestions
Opening Position Size: No more than 1% of account net value, single trade risk ≤ 3%.
Order Strategy: Limit order entry (selecting opportunity in the 1,769.76→1,782.27 range), avoiding slippage in market orders.
Dynamic Monitoring: Check order flow and funding rate changes every hour, if funding rate rises above -0.01%, need to reduce positions and observe.