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1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Trend Prediction:

1. Technical Analysis:

• During the day, BTC hit 94,800 and then retraced. The 4-hour chart shows a MACD divergence + RSI (76) indicating overbought conditions, suggesting significant short-term pullback pressure, with a potential retest of the 92,000-93,000 range at night.

• Key Levels:

o Support: 92,000 (4-hour EMA30) → A break could lead to 90,500 (Daily MA7).

o Resistance: 94,500-95,000 (previous highs + psychological level) → A breakout could push towards 96,000.

• Volume Signal: Although prices rose during the day, trading volume shrank, cautioning against the risk of a sell-off following a “volume-less rally.”

2. News Analysis:

• Trump’s policy easing (tariffs, Federal Reserve stance) stimulates the market, but if U.S. stocks pull back in the early morning, BTC may also decline.

• If the Federal Reserve speaks in the early morning and signals a “delay in rate cuts,” it could trigger panic selling.

Trading Recommendations:

• Long Position: Enter lightly on a pullback to 92,000-92,500, add to positions at 91,000, targeting 93,500-94,000, with a stop loss below 90,800.

• Short Position: Short on a rebound to 94,300-94,500, with a stop loss at 95,000, targeting 93,000-92,500.

Tip: Don’t chase the rise! Wait for a pullback to buy; if it breaks below 90,800, exit immediately!

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2. Ethereum (ETH)

Trend Prediction:

1. Technical Analysis:

• ETH retraced after rallying to 1,810, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands upper band under pressure, possibly pulling back to the 1,750-1,780 range at night.

• Key Levels:

o Support: 1,750 (4-hour MA30) → A break could lead to 1,720 (intraday low).

o Resistance: 1,850-1,880 (previous daily highs + Fibonacci extension levels).

2. Correlation:

• If BTC holds above 93,000, ETH might follow to 1,850, but the weaker pattern compared to BTC is unlikely to change, so be cautious of “slow to rise but fast to fall.”

Trading Recommendations:

• Long Position: Lightly accumulate at 1,750-1,780, add to positions at 1,720, targeting 1,820-1,850, with a stop loss below 1,700.

• Short Position: Short on a rebound to 1,840-1,850, with a stop loss at 1,880, targeting 1,780-1,750.

Reminder: Recently, the market has been rising with ETH but not falling, if you make a profit, don’t be greedy!