#以太坊的未来
1. Big Pie: High volatility, beware of 'spike' risk
Key Signals:
1. Technical Analysis:
• 4-hour MACD divergence, RSI overbought (74), multiple attempts to breach 94,500 failed, significant selling pressure from whales at 94,000 USD.
• Key support at 92,500 (4-hour MA60), breaking this level may lead to a spike to 90,500.
2. On-chain Data:
• Long-term holders (LTH) increased holdings by 2.1%, but short-term holders (STH) took profits, increasing pullback pressure.
• Open contracts reached 281,000 BTC, high leverage positions need to be cautious of liquidation.
Action Strategy:
• Long Position: Lightly buy at 92,500-93,000, stop loss at 91,500, target 94,000;
• Short Position: Attempt short at 94,300-94,500, stop loss at 95,200, target 93,000.
• Mnemonic: 'No trading in sideways, spike for surprise'.
2. Auntie: Weakness evident, staking liquidation becomes a hidden danger
Technical Analysis:
• Support at 1,750 (daily MA30), resistance at 1,820 (4-hour upper Bollinger band).
• MACD death cross formed, volume shrinks, rebound lacks strength.
Action Suggestions:
• Rebound Short: Attempt short near 1,820, stop loss at 1,850, target 1,760;
• Sudden Drop Bargain: Buy at 1,750, stop loss at 1,700, quick in and out.
• Common saying: 'Auntie is weak, only trades rebounds, no romance'.
3. Solana: Ecosystem driven, beware of Gas fee backlash
Positive Factors:
• Ecosystem TVL rebounded to 4.8 billion USD, projects like DARK rose 30% in 24 hours.
• Institutional accumulation: Sol Strategies, Upexi hold over 800,000 SOL.
Risk Points:
• Surge in on-chain Gas fees may suppress short-term speculation, selling pressure exists at 150-155 USD.
Strategy:
• Long Position: Buy low near 150, replenish at 145, target 160, stop loss at 142;
• Short Position: Attempt short at 155-158, stop loss at 160, target 148.
• Mnemonic: 'SOL volatility is high, stop loss must be firm, take profit quickly'.