Against the backdrop of global financial market volatility, Bitcoin has become a focal point with astonishing resilience, emerging with a phase of independent performance against the trend. Despite the continued decline of U.S. stocks due to economic concerns, Bitcoin's stable performance has brought hope to the cryptocurrency market. However, the U.S. tariff policy, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy have cast a shadow over the market. Can Bitcoin continue to 'stand alone'?
Recently, the U.S. stock market has experienced a round of turbulence. Trump's public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, combined with his remarks about the trade war potentially leading to an economic recession, has severely undermined market confidence. Before the market opened, adverse economic data had already triggered market unease, and Trump's posts further intensified panic. The conflict between Trump and economic leaders has left U.S. stock players feeling unprecedented uncertainty.
In contrast, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, especially during Asian trading hours, with significantly increased trading volume and a strong price trend. Technical analysis shows that the support range of $85,000 to $86,000 remains solid, and there is no apparent loosening in the distribution of chips. The sentiment of long-term holders in the $92,000 to $97,000 range is stable, and the exit of short-term players has not shaken the foundations of the market. The influx of funds into the Asian market may be related to regional players' demand for hedging against global economic risks or policy hedging, particularly in the context of escalating trade frictions between the East and West.
Since Trump took office, his tariff policy has become a hot topic in the market. Trump has warned that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, the trade war could lead to an economic recession. Currently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is approaching 4.5%, while the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds are nearing 5%, reflecting market concerns about debt pressure and economic prospects. The continued decline of U.S. stocks highlights players' avoidance of uncertainty, while Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stock trading hours indicates that it has not fully escaped the attributes of risk assets.
However, the rebound during Asian trading hours demonstrates Bitcoin's unique appeal. The increase in Asian funds may be related to tariff-related policies or portfolio adjustments. Since April 4, Bitcoin's partial pullback has been highly correlated with the escalation of trade frictions between the East and West, indicating that players need to pay attention to regional capital flows. If expectations of a U.S. economic recession intensify, Bitcoin may struggle to remain completely independent of U.S. stock trends.
Another major highlight of the cryptocurrency market is the 72 cryptocurrency ETFs currently under review by the U.S. SEC. According to Bloomberg, these ETFs include spot ETF applications for tokens such as SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC, ADA, AVAX, BONK, as well as staking functionality applications for ETH spot ETFs. These applications indicate a growing interest from traditional financial institutions in crypto assets, hinting at the potential for massive inflows of capital.
The approval of spot ETFs will provide regulatory endorsement for related tokens, making them recognized as compliant mainstream assets globally. Currently, only BTC and ETH spot ETFs have passed approval, while the appointment of the new SEC chairman may delay the approval process. Nevertheless, the potential impact of ETFs has already begun to ferment in the market, becoming an important factor in boosting player confidence.
On a technical level, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has recently seen a net inflow of 4,479 BTC (approximately $381 million), coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar index and a low long-short ratio, suggesting a bullish short-term outlook. Bitcoin is challenging the 200-day moving average and may test the resistance range of $91,700 to $92,200 in the short term. If successful, the price could briefly spike to $96,000, but this level is likely to trigger another major correction.
