Old Vine Review｜Big Brother Solo Dance, Aunty Lacks Power, Altcoins Wait for the Wind
The news front has been a bit interesting these days:
💥 The Federal Reserve is likely to remain unchanged in May, with the probability of no rate change soaring to 96.3%, and the market has priced it in early.
💸 Ethereum ETF funds continue to flow out, with a net outflow of 1.1 billion dollars over seven weeks, the enthusiasm is as cold as Aunty’s trading volume.
👀 The new head of the SEC, Paul Atkins, starts tomorrow. This person has a good reputation, is pro-market, and supports innovation. There might be some favorable regulatory news coming, worth keeping an eye on.
To be honest, the technical side isn’t complicated:
BTC:
– The market fluctuated during the day yesterday, dipped before the US market opened, and then surged directly after, peaking at 885, perfectly hitting the pressure;
– Re-tested 864 in the early hours, the overall rhythm aligns with expectations from the past few days;
– The daily line shows a large upper shadow candle, gold is rising, and BTC is also being viewed as a safe-haven asset, the correlation is a bit strong;
– The 4-hour center of gravity is slowly rising, but be wary of a sudden high-low reversal candle at any time, the rhythm cannot drift.
– Today's range remains unchanged: resistance at 884-894, support at 864-874.
– Ethereum really can’t get moving, it surged a bit yesterday and then lost steam, this morning it again dropped sharply;
– The price hit around 1530, technically it looks weak, the 4-hour just finished a spike and may need to linger;
– Aunty's trend can be summed up in one word: weak.
– In terms of operations, don’t be too aggressive: support at 1540 below, if that breaks, caution is required; the old problem above 1600-1620, if it can’t break through, there’s no hope.
Altcoins:
– It’s not about who falls the least now, but who can rise;
– Overall liquidity is weak, need to watch sectors lead the rhythm;
– In the AI direction, TAO, FET, LPT have funding support, while on the MEME side, WIF, PEOPLE, FLOKI have occasional fluctuations, and the gaming side has some activity, GALA, GMT, SAND can be monitored.
– The logic is very simple: during pullbacks, see who holds up, during rebounds, see who moves first, chasing highs is basically a dead end.
In conclusion:
BTC is playing the rhythm at the upper resistance range, don’t force Aunty or altcoins without signals, watch more and act less, wait for the real rotation to start before making moves.
