Market trends and potential risks.
As of the time of writing, ETH is still hovering around $2,330, and this key resistance level determines the price trend in the short term.
Data shows that over 106 million ETH addresses may currently be in a state of loss, reflecting potential pressure in the market.
Approximately 2.6 million addresses hold over 6.28 million ETH, with price ranges between $2,295 and $2,350, constituting one of the most significant resistance levels in the ETH market.
The challenge of breaking through: Break-even pressure.
Any price movement approaching this area may face significant selling pressure from holders, especially those seeking to break even.
Thus, breaking through this area and turning it into a support level is crucial for Ethereum.
If it can break through and maintain above this area, it may reignite confidence among over-the-counter investors and drive the price further up.
However, the current market sentiment remains cautious, and the possibility of breaking through still carries uncertainty.
On-chain health: Weakening demand.
Meanwhile, the on-chain health of ETH presents a mixed situation.
According to the data, ETH trading fees have significantly decreased in the past week and the past 90 days, dropping by 56.31% and 88.89%, respectively.
This significant decline may indicate weakened demand for the ETH network, with usage at a low level.
Moreover, the phenomenon of large holders withdrawing funds is also quite evident, with net inflows of whales dropping by 49.74% in the past week and plummeting by 447.53% in the past month.
This phenomenon may imply hesitation among institutional investors, thus weakening the potential for ETH price breakthroughs.
Short-term price structure and market sentiment.
Despite facing multiple pressures, ETH's recent price structure shows certain signs of recovery.
In the past 24 hours, the ETH price has risen by 3.62%, rebounding strongly from the support level of $1,385, testing the resistance zone of $1,650 to $1,703.
Currently, the ETH price remains trapped in a downward parallel channel, which has repeatedly restricted price rebounds.
The level around $1,703 coincides with the upper boundary of the channel, forming dual resistance.
If ETH can effectively break through this resistance area, the downward trend may fail, and the price is expected to continue rising to $2,330.
However, the current market structure remains cautious, and the difficulty of breaking through should not be underestimated.
Investor sentiment: Cautiously optimistic.
Despite the market's uncertainty, some signs indicate that retail investor confidence is strengthening.
Net outflow data from exchanges shows that this week, the net outflow of ETH reached 29,948 ETH, with balances on trading platforms decreasing by 1.96%.
This data suggests that investors remain cautiously optimistic about potential future breakthroughs. However, overall market sentiment remains divided, and the optimism of retail investors has yet to be confirmed by institutional investors or increased on-chain activity.
Summary.
In the short term, the challenge of ETH breaking through the supply barrier at $2,330 remains significant.
Although there has been a rebound recently and outflows from exchanges show moderate optimism, the lack of whales and low trading fee activity may further limit the possibility of a breakthrough.
Unless ETH can break above $1,703 and activate on-chain demand, the key resistance level at $2,330 is unlikely to be breached in the short term.