Table of Contents:

1. This week's large token unlock data;

2. Overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick read on weekly popular coins' fluctuations/fund flows;

3. Spot #etf dynamics;

4.#BTC Liquidation map data interpretation;

5. Analysis of total trading data for the week;

6. Key macro events this week and important previews for the cryptocurrency market.

1. This week's large token unlock data;

This week, various tokens will undergo one-time unlocks. The ranking by unlock value is as follows:

Undeads Games (UDS) will unlock approximately 21.94 million tokens at 8 AM on April 27, accounting for 30.54% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $14.9 million;

Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4 PM on April 25, accounting for 2.86% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $7.9 million;

AltLayer (#ALT ) will unlock approximately 24 million tokens at 6 PM on April 25, accounting for 7.92% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $6.9 million;

Murasaki (MURA) will unlock approximately 10 million tokens at 8 AM on April 23, accounting for 1.00% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $4 million;

SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 12.65 million tokens at 8 AM on April 22, accounting for 2.94% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $2.4 million.

The unlocking situation of these projects may have varying degrees of impact on related markets. The above times are in UTC+8, this week we are focusing on the negative effects of UDS and ALT due to unlocking, avoiding spot trading, and seeking short arbitrage opportunities in contracts. The data is from Coinank.

We believe that from the perspective of market supply and demand, multiple tokens unlocking this week will significantly increase the circulating supply, potentially creating short-term selling pressure on the secondary market. Among these, the unlocking scale of Undeads Games (UDS) is particularly concerning, as its release accounts for 30.54% of the current circulating supply, far exceeding the industry warning line of 5%, which may trigger panic selling among holders. Although Venom (VENOM) and AltLayer (ALT) have lower unlocking ratios (2.86% and 7.92%), their absolute values reach $7.9 million and $6.9 million respectively, which may impact the liquidity of small and mid-cap tokens.

It is worth noting that the unlocking structures of different projects vary significantly. For example, SPACE ID (ID) has an unlocking amount that accounts for 2.94% of its circulating supply, but given its continuous linear unlocking plan over the past six months, the market may have partially digested this expectation. In contrast, Murasaki (MURA) has an unlocking ratio of only 1%, but its project is in the early stages, and community consensus has not yet solidified, meaning even small unlocks may amplify price volatility.

Historical data shows (e.g., the 12.66% circulating supply unlocking of VENOM in September 2024 led to an 18% drop on the same day) that a high proportion of unlocks often accompanies price corrections. The current market is at a time when expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy shift are heating up, and investors' risk preferences are fluctuating significantly. It is advisable to closely monitor each project's lock-up policies and fund movements, being wary of the sector rotation risks caused by liquidity siphoning effects.

2. Overview of the cryptocurrency market, quick read on weekly popular coins' fluctuations/fund flows

According to CoinAnk data, over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market has seen net inflows in conceptual sectors such as the Ethereum ecosystem, smart contracts, #BSC , Avalanche ecosystem, Layer 1, AI, and Launchpool. The following tokens in the top 500 by market capitalization showed significant gains: MAGIC, FX, fhe, ENJ, and LOOM, indicating that investors should continue to focus on strong trading opportunities this week.

3. Spot ETF fund dynamics.

According to CoinAnk data, last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $15.85 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow last week was BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT, with a weekly net inflow of $186 million, bringing IBIT's historical total net inflow to $39.75 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net outflow last week was Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF FBTC, with a weekly net outflow of $123 million, and FBTC's historical total net inflow currently stands at $11.28 billion.

The total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs currently stands at $94.51 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap compared to Bitcoin's total market cap) of 5.59%. The historical cumulative net outflow has reached $35.37 billion.

We believe that the fund flows of Bitcoin spot ETFs exhibit the following characteristics and potential impacts:

1. Institutional strategy differentiation and cost optimization drive. BlackRock's IBIT saw a net inflow of $186 million for the week (historical cumulative $39.75 billion), while Fidelity's FBTC experienced a net outflow of $123 million (historical cumulative $11.28 billion), reflecting that institutional investors are executing a 'selective migration' strategy. IBIT, with its low fees and liquidity advantages, accounts for 42% of the total net asset value of ETFs, continuously attracting funds; while FBTC's slightly higher fees and recent market volatility have prompted some funds to shift towards more cost-effective tools.

2. Market resilience verification and liquidity layering. Although the net inflow for the week was only $15.85 million, the total net asset value of ETFs still reached $94.51 billion (accounting for 5.59% of Bitcoin's market cap), indicating that the underlying support for institutional allocation remains intact. However, the historical cumulative net outflow of $35.37 billion exposes short-term arbitrage pressure, especially when the Bitcoin price volatility (30-day volatility at 34%) is below the threshold, narrowing the profit space for high-frequency strategies.

3. The game between macro policies and market sentiment. The current differentiation in fund flows is closely related to macroeconomic uncertainties (such as Trump's tariff policies, U.S. Treasury yields climbing to 4.225%). Institutions are hedging risks by increasing holdings in short-term U.S. Treasuries, while the slight net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs indicates that some funds still view it as a long-term inflation hedging tool, but it needs to break key resistance levels (like $88,000) to activate a trend-based return.

Future path projections: If expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates strengthen, institutions may restart their allocation cycles; conversely, if U.S. Treasury yields continue to suppress risk appetite, ETF fund flows may face further pressure. The current market is in a 'stock game' phase, and Bitcoin needs to build support at the miner cost line to avoid a negative feedback loop of 'institutional selling - retail leverage liquidation.'

4. BTC liquidation map data.

CoinAnk liquidation map data shows that if BTC breaks $90,968, the cumulative short liquidation intensity across major CEXs will reach $1.295 billion. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls below $83,000, the cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs will reach $4.121 billion.

We believe that the liquidation thresholds formed by Bitcoin in the range of $83,000 to $91,000 reveal the fierce contest between bulls and bears at key price levels. Data indicates that if the price breaks $90,968, it will trigger $1.295 billion in short liquidations, which could lead to a 'short squeeze' effect—large amounts of stop-loss orders being triggered could accelerate the price rise, forming a positive feedback loop. Conversely, if it falls below $83,000, the pressure of $4.121 billion in long liquidations could trigger a liquidity crisis, exacerbating selling momentum in the short term.

It is noteworthy that the intensity of liquidation reflects the relative severity of market reactions when prices reach specific levels, rather than the precise value of contracts. The current asymmetry in liquidation intensity (long liquidation intensity being about 3.18 times that of shorts) suggests a cautious market sentiment. Some investors may be betting on short-term pullbacks through high leverage, but with a high concentration of positions, the risk of price declines becomes more pronounced. This structural feature indicates that Bitcoin is currently in a liquidity-sensitive area, and breaking through any threshold could trigger a chain reaction, so investors need to be alert to the impact of extreme fluctuations on the market ecology.

5. Weekly total trading volume data.

Coinank data shows that global exchange trading volume over the past seven days has dropped to $32 billion, evaporating more than three-quarters from the peak of the cycle, reaching a nearly ten-month low. The dominance of the derivatives market continues to strengthen, with the spot/futures trading ratios of BTC and #ETH falling to extreme lows of 0.19 and 0.20, indicating that the proportion of leveraged trading has surpassed the 84% warning line. Among the unusual signals, the Solana ecosystem is actively bucking the trend, with its DEX weekly trading volume increasing by 37% week-over-week, forming a localized capital siphoning effect.

We believe that the current liquidity exhaustion stems from a resonance of three pressures: the surge in the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase scale leading to dollar liquidity tightening, market makers reducing risk exposure amid regulatory uncertainty, and institutional investors turning to risk-free arbitrage like Treasury reverse repos. It is noteworthy that the high level of open interest in futures, coupled with the shrinkage of spot trading, forms a 'volume-price divergence.' This typical technical bear market structure often indicates a continuation of mid-term adjustments.

For the cryptocurrency ecosystem, liquidity layering will exacerbate market vulnerability: low spot trading ratios of mainstream coins may amplify the price crash risk triggered by futures liquidations; localized activity in competing chains like Solana may accelerate the Matthew effect in public chain ecosystems, prompting cross-chain asset reallocation; shrinking CEX liquidity pushes institutions towards over-the-counter bulk trading, driving dark pool trading volume to exceed the historical threshold of 15%. It is noteworthy that the market cap of stablecoins has grown by 2.3% during this liquidity contraction cycle, suggesting that the market is constructing a new hedging structure, potentially accumulating energy for the next market cycle.

6. Key macro events this week and important previews for the cryptocurrency market.

April 21: Coinbase submitted an application for XRP futures, expected to launch;

2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks with CNBC; Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson speaks at the Economic Liquidity Summit;

April 22: Hyperlane will conduct an airdrop;

European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks with CNBC; 2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker speaks at the Economic Liquidity Summit;

April 23: 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks; 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers the opening speech at an event; 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Federal Reserve Board member Waller deliver opening speeches at an event;

April 24: Binance Launchpool launches Initia (INIT) mining, opens for trading;

Lending protocol Dolomite will conduct its TGE;

The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions;

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week;

April 25: The US SEC will hold its third cryptocurrency policy roundtable on April 25, focusing on cryptocurrency asset custody issues;

2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks;

U.S. April Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. April one-year inflation expectations final value.

Coinank Research Institute believes that this week's macro events and policy dynamics in the cryptocurrency market will revolve around expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and regulatory progress, producing multidimensional effects on market sentiment and fund flows.

Core Influencing Factors Interpretation:

Frequent speeches and policy signals from Federal Reserve officials: Speeches from Goolsbee, Jefferson, and other voting members may strengthen the market's expectations for the interest rate path. If hawkish signals are released (such as emphasizing sticky inflation or delaying rate cuts), it will intensify the selling pressure on risk assets, especially as Bitcoin has recently fallen below key support levels due to rate hike expectations; conversely, if risks of economic slowdown are mentioned, it may alleviate market anxiety and provide a short-term rebound window for crypto assets. Evidence shows that Federal Reserve policy remains the core driving force behind current cryptocurrency market volatility, indirectly influencing fund allocation preferences through liquidity expectations and the strength of the dollar.

XRP futures launch and regulatory game: Coinbase submitted an application for XRP futures, and if successfully launched, it will enhance the liquidity and institutional participation of this asset. However, the SEC policy roundtable focusing on custody issues suggests that regulatory uncertainty remains. Previously, XRP's ETF fund inflow was hindered due to legal status disputes, and the launch of futures products may become a 'double-edged sword'—boosting trading activity in the short term while still being constrained by the regulatory rollout pace in the long term.

Economic data and market sentiment linkage: The Beige Book and initial jobless claims data will reveal the resilience of the U.S. economy. If the labor market weakens or inflation expectations decline, it may reinforce expectations for interest rate cuts, driving a synchronized rebound in the cryptocurrency market and risk assets like U.S. stocks; conversely, strong data may exacerbate concerns of 'higher for longer,' suppressing highly volatile assets like Bitcoin.

Potential impacts on the cryptocurrency market:

Short-term volatility intensifies: The intertwining of Federal Reserve officials' statements and economic data will amplify market fluctuations in both directions, and investors need to be wary of the liquidation risks of leveraged positions amid policy swings.

Structural opportunity differentiation: The launch of new projects (like INIT mining) and airdrops (Hyperlane) may attract localized capital speculation, but in the context of tightening macro liquidity, the sustainability of such trends may be limited.

Long-term regulatory framework prototype: If the SEC roundtable clarifies compliance paths for custody, it could accelerate institutional entry and provide incremental funds to the market; conversely, if policies become ambiguous, it will extend the period of 'compliance premium' absence and suppress the valuation recovery of mainstream assets.

In summary, the cryptocurrency market this week will be in a 'policy-sensitive period.' Investors are advised to pay attention to marginal changes in the Federal Reserve's tone and the impact of economic data deviating from expectations, while also being wary of regulatory dynamics' short-term impact on specific assets (like XRP) and the medium to long-term reconstruction of value.