Macro Interpretation: The current crypto market is undergoing an unprecedented structural transformation. The latest data shows that the correlation of #BTC with the S&P 500 index has dropped from 0.88 at the end of 2024 to 0.77, and the correlation with the Nasdaq index has also shrunk from 0.91 at the beginning of the year to 0.83. This "de-Americanization" trend sharply contrasts with the significant increase in correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with their negative correlation value rebounding quickly from -0.62 at the beginning of the month to -0.31, suggesting that Bitcoin is gradually shedding its label as a risk asset and returning to its essential property as a value storage tool. This transformation coincides with global trade policy uncertainties, exacerbating volatility in traditional financial markets. Although the S&P 500 index recorded a 1.67% increase, the intra-day reversal of more than half of the gains exposes the fragility of market confidence.
The increased correlation with gold opens up new valuation space for Bitcoin. The continuous improvement of the correlation coefficient between the two coincides with the largest increase in global central bank gold reserves since 1999. When the US Treasury hinted that it would not unilaterally reduce tariffs on China, the inflation-hedging premium of Bitcoin and gold appearing simultaneously reflects a fundamental shift in institutional investors' pricing logic regarding geopolitical risks. This shift is manifested on a micro level as over 37.5% of crypto users begin to try AI asset management tools. Although there are still concerns about fully entrusting operations to algorithms, 87.1% of respondents have accepted allocating at least 10% of their assets to AI agents. This innovation in investment paradigms empowered by technology is reshaping the decision-making chain of market participants.
At the institutional investor level, the movements disclosed by Coinbase are more enlightening. Since April 2025, sovereign wealth funds have been increasing their Bitcoin holdings at an unprecedented scale, with a clear distinction between their operating pace and retail investors reducing their holdings through ETFs. This inverse operation between institutions and retail investors explains why the 30-day average of Bitcoin deposited into exchange addresses has fallen to 52,000, only a quarter of the peak three years ago. This "freezing" phenomenon of holding addresses has reached levels seen in December 2016, effectively locking liquidity worth trillions of dollars in cold wallets, fundamentally reshaping the supply-demand structure of Bitcoin.
The evolution of market microstructure is validated in the derivatives market. Among the $7.2 billion BTC options expiring on April 25, the maximum pain point of $85,000 has a significant price difference from the current price of $92,300, making it a certainty for call option holders to profit. This long-short game pattern corroborates the strong performance of spot ETFs, which have seen a net inflow of $917 million for four consecutive days, pushing Bitcoin's market capitalization above $1.87 trillion, officially surpassing Google's parent company to become the fifth largest asset globally. Notably, institutional investors are deploying through dual pathways: continuously accumulating in the spot market while using the options market for risk hedging. This layered operational strategy is quite common in traditional commodity markets and is now reappearing in the crypto space, marking a substantial increase in market maturity.
The tenth anniversary celebration of the Ethereum ecosystem has become an important window to observe market sentiment. On the eve of the July 30 Genesis Block anniversary, the foundation's global community activity funding program is catalyzing a secondary prosperity of the developer ecosystem. Historical experience shows that whenever the underlying protocol reaches a significant milestone, it is often accompanied by the opening of a technological upgrade window. The current effort of Ethereum to stabilize around the $1800 mark resonates with the explosive growth of Layer 2 solutions, and the improvement of this infrastructure objectively diverts some speculative funds from Bitcoin, facilitating a healthier value rotation pattern in the market.
Looking ahead, three core variables will dominate the market direction: first, the allocation rhythm of sovereign funds, whose marginal changes at a trillion-dollar scale can reverse market trends; second, the penetration rate of AI asset management tools, which may lead to a qualitative change in market volatility patterns when algorithmic trading surpasses a critical point; and finally, the evolution of the correlation between Bitcoin and gold, which could attract systematic inflows of traditional safe-haven funds if a positive correlation pattern is established. It is worth noting that the extreme case of Trump coin (TRUMP) skyrocketing 40% in a single day serves as a warning that, in the absence of a sound regulatory framework, irrational speculative risks still exist in the market. However, overall, with institutions continuing to accumulate, technical breakthroughs, and the resonance of the macro environment driving Bitcoin to stand at a new starting point for value reassessment, the $100,000 mark may become the next strategic battleground in the long-short game.
Data Analysis:
The meme token TRUMP launched by former US President Trump announced that it will hold a "TRUMP Dinner" on May 22, inviting the top 220 holders by amount of tokens held to participate. Among them, the top 25 VIPs will receive additional special reception at the White House and private club closed-door communication qualifications. The event uses a composite weight mechanism of "amount held × holding duration" to screen participants. Data shows that the current total holdings of the top 25 VIPs have exceeded 2 million TRUMP tokens, with a holding concentration of up to 2.099 million tokens.
In terms of the market, Coinank data shows that this news has stimulated the TRUMP price to surge nearly 80% in a single day, skyrocketing from $9.03 to $15.84. The top ten addresses still control 82% of the circulating supply, with 80% of the project's tokens locked, and future unlocking pressure may trigger drastic price fluctuations. Notably, most whales only withdrew tokens from exchanges or built positions on-chain after the dinner announcement, with only two holders using early building addresses.
Democratic Party lawmakers have criticized the event for suspected power rent-seeking, and the SEC may reassess the token's security attributes. Although the project party emphasizes that only wallet address verification is required for holdings, the market still needs to be vigilant about the flow of unlocked tokens and the risk of large holders selling. Currently, the locked tokens are worth approximately $2.6 billion, and the decision to delay the first round of unlocking by 90 days has temporarily alleviated concerns about selling pressure. This innovative model of "holding is privilege" attracts institutional funds but also carries the risk of price manipulation, as historical data shows that the project party once cash out $112 million in a single transaction.
