The U.S. economy is the core driving force of the global market, and Bitcoin's movements are closely linked to it. This week there is little economic data, and the opening of U.S. stocks on Monday evening will serve as a short-term barometer. The market is focusing on the upcoming GDP data for the first quarter of 2025, which will provide clear guidance for 'recession trading'. The U.S. economy currently faces dual challenges of sluggish growth and high inflation, limiting Trump's policy space. Although the topic of tariffs continues to fester, the market's reaction is gradually numbing, shifting attention to the actual impact of policy implementation.
This week, all eyes are on the tech giants. Tesla and Alphabet will respectively release their earnings reports after the market closes on Tuesday and Thursday, and their performance could trigger market fluctuations affecting risk assets like Bitcoin. Next week, another four tech giants (excluding Nvidia) along with crypto companies MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) will announce their results. Strong earnings performance could boost risk appetite, benefiting Bitcoin; if expectations are not met, it may dampen market sentiment.
The new appointment of the SEC chairman brings new hope to the crypto industry. The repeal of SAB 121 highlights a more friendly regulatory attitude. It is expected that by the third quarter of 2025, the policy regarding spot Ethereum ETF staking will become clearer, with a high likelihood of approval. This will not only enhance the attractiveness of the Ethereum ETF but may also open up staking channels for other spot ETFs (such as Solana's SOL), attracting more institutional funds. This policy dividend could become an important driving force in the market.
On-chain data shows that last Sunday, the Bitcoin turnover rate hit a nearly year-low, with only 16,000 BTC transferred between addresses within 24 hours, lower than the bottom of the 2022 bear market (when the price was only $17,000). However, the market has not replicated the extreme sluggishness of those years. A strong support has formed around $83,000, and player confidence remains solid; the chips are highly concentrated in the range of $92,000 to $97,000. As long as there is no large-scale sell-off in these key areas, the downside risk for Bitcoin is manageable.
There is a turning point in Bitcoin's technical outlook. On Monday morning, a large bullish candle broke through the 60-day moving average, but the 200-day moving average constitutes resistance. The short-term long-short ratio is low, and the weakening U.S. dollar index supports further upward movement for Bitcoin, targeting $88,000 to $92,200. However, there is a belief that macroeconomic uncertainty limits the upside potential, making this round more likely a rebound rather than a reversal. If the resistance at $92,200 is not broken, the price may fall back to the range of $74,500 to $80,000.
