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#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC $BTC
【April 30 - May 1 US-Japan Macroeconomic Outlook】GDP and Core PCE Approaching, Bank of Japan Decision, BTC May Experience Significant Volatility

This week, the US and Japan will announce key macroeconomic data and policy decisions, and BTC and risk assets may enter a period of significant volatility.

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1. Key Data and Events

United States (April 30, 20:30 Beijing Time)
• US First Quarter Labor Cost Index Quarterly Rate
• Previous Value: +0.90%
• Expected: +0.90%
• US First Quarter Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate Initial Value
• Previous Value: +2.40%
• Expected: +0.40%
• US First Quarter Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Rate Initial Value
• Previous Value: +2.60%
• Expected: +3.20%

【Interpretation】Slowing GDP is favorable for BTC, but if Core PCE rises, it may lead to short-term shocks.

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Japan (May 1)
• Bank of Japan Announces Interest Rate Decision and Economic Outlook
• Governor Kazuo Ueda Holds Monetary Policy Press Conference (14:30)

【Interpretation】If tightening signals are released (stronger yen), it is favorable for risk assets. If continued easing occurs, a stronger dollar may be unfavorable for BTC in the short term.

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2. BTC Market Structure Analysis

Current Data
• BTC Spot Price: $94,065
• Total Holdings: 84,600 BTC
• Large Holder Long-Short Position Ratio: Slightly Favoring Longs
• Large Holder Account Long-Short Participant Ratio: Basically Balanced
• 24-Hour Trading Volume: Over 80,000 BTC

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3. Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Operations:
• Control positions before 20:00 on April 30 to avoid significant fluctuations.
• Support Zone: $92,500-$93,000, can tentatively try light long positions on first touch.
• Resistance Zone: $95,500, consider adding to long positions after breaking and holding above.
• Strictly set stop-loss, keeping risk within 1%-2% of account balance.

Medium-Term Layout:
• If GDP drops significantly and Core PCE is moderate, BTC is expected to surge above $96,000.
• If data is bearish, wait for a pullback to confirm support in the $92,500-$91,500 range before considering long positions.

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【Summary】

US GDP and Core PCE, Bank of Japan Decision are key this week.
BTC holding structure is stable, but volatility window is opening.
It is recommended to trade lightly and follow the trend after confirming direction.