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From the current market situation, Bitcoin has not yet completed an upward breakthrough or a downward breakdown. However, the current price is near the upper pressure, so the probability of continuing to break upwards increases. If it surges up to 87000~89000, then next week it may start a new 4-hour level downtrend.

So, how should we view the current market from a trading perspective?

First of all, both long and short positions have opportunities in the short term. If it breaks upwards here, then the long position can actually gain a little. However, the profit expectation will not be too large.

During the day, I suggested everyone to try going long. If it breaks through, there should still be some profit to be made. Those who haven't acted can wait for Bitcoin to break through 96000, and then go long during the next 15-minute level pullback. However, I personally expect the upward space is not very large.

Secondly, if it breaks upwards, then after the 1-hour rebound structure is completed, there will actually be an opportunity to make a 4-hour level short position. The expectation is that the next 4-hour downtrend can still return to around 79000, and if lucky, it may even revisit 74000, but the probability is a bit low.

Finally, for spot trading, those who have not bought any spot need not worry excessively. The possibility of completely missing out is small, and even in the case where Bitcoin surges again to complete a 4-hour rebound, consider selling the spot again. Then wait for the next 4-hour level pullback to get back in.

PS: Currently, the Bitcoin and Ethereum trading team has 4 members. Due to business needs, we are now recruiting one more member to participate in the current spot trading. The expectation is to evaluate the wave effect of the next daily level rebound from start to finish. The speed of spot trading is relatively slow, but more stable. Participants need a bit of capital to do Bitcoin and Ethereum spot trading, and should not rush for success; slow is fast. (The expected overall return speed is expected to accelerate in May.)

Members recruited can receive: 1. A one-year spot trading strategy with one-on-one support. 2. An online basic knowledge training course organized about once every 1 to 2 weeks.

BTC

Due to the fast-changing market conditions in the short term, the article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be used as a reference.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, it is currently oscillating near the resistance of the upper boundary of the central region. Therefore, continuing to break through 85500 here makes it quite likely to start a 1-hour level departure segment. Subjectively, I lean towards the possibility of pushing up to the range of 87000~89000, completing a 4-hour level rebound, and then starting a 4-hour level downtrend next week, with an expected target for the decline near 78000.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, if Bitcoin can surge up to 86000, it will confirm that it is in a 1-hour level rebound out of the central region, with a rebound target in the range of 87000~89000. Currently assuming that this is already a 1-hour rebound, it should still be in the first 15-minute level rebound, watching whether it can surge up to 86000, and then proceed to the second 15-minute level pullback and the third 15-minute level rebound.

If it falls below 84500 again, the above assumption will be denied, and it will be considered that the short-term trend has turned downwards.

ETH

Ethereum is currently still in a central oscillation state, temporarily not showing a clear direction. For Ethereum to break upwards, the price needs to break above 1615 before we can consider that Ethereum will start a 1-hour level rebound out of the central region. Without a breakthrough, there is no strong assurance. So it is actually better to wait for a breakout before entering. However, the upward space may not be very large, with an expectation of around 1750.

If it falls below 1580 again in the short term, it is believed that the market should choose to turn downwards, and then we need to observe around 1480.

Trend direction

Weekly level: Direction is up, currently in a new weekly uptrend, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily level: Direction is down, at the end of the daily downtrend, but it is temporarily still impossible to determine when the daily pullback will end. We need to observe the next 4-hour pullback situation.

4-hour level: Direction is up, currently very likely within the range of a 4-hour rebound, with a target near 88000.

1-hour level: Direction is up or down. If it breaks through 85500 again, it is believed that it will continue to push upwards, with a target above 88000.

15-minute level: Slightly oscillating, looking at key positions up or down. If it falls below 84500, the probability of turning down increases. If it breaks through 85500, the probability of turning upwards increases.