Powell has recently made multiple public statements clearly opposing calls for premature interest rate cuts. Since the March 2025 FOMC meeting, he has consistently emphasized that the Federal Reserve's policy is based on economic data, not political pressure. In the face of Trump's repeated questioning of his position, Powell firmly responded that Trump has no right to interfere with the Federal Reserve or dismiss him. This stance not only highlights the independence of the Federal Reserve but also injects stability expectations into the market. Powell's high interest rate policy is expected to continue, further affecting global asset pricing.
Compared to the ongoing heated discussions on monetary policy, the impact of tariffs and trade disputes on the market is diminishing. The recent renewed clashes between the U.S. and the EU have drawn attention but have not significantly shaken risk assets. Meanwhile, positive progress has been made in trade negotiations between Long Ge and the U.S., with both sides nearing a 'promising' agreement. The U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets are increasingly calm in response to trade frictions, as players gradually adapt to the cyclical nature of such events: although there are many verbal conflicts, the substantive impact is limited. This market resilience makes funds more inclined to focus on long-term trends rather than short-term noise.
On the eve of the holiday, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market leans towards caution. Bitcoin is currently consolidating around $84,700, and the Fear and Greed Index (FGI) stands at 33, indicating insufficient market confidence. Yesterday's turnover rate significantly decreased, in line with the pattern of light trading on the last working day of the week. Short-term players remain the main force active in the market, but due to limited BTC price fluctuations, overall trading activity continues to decline. Most players choose to hold and wait for clearer breakthrough signals.
Despite the gloomy market atmosphere, the underlying support for Bitcoin is becoming increasingly solid. The support around $83,000 is gradually consolidating, demonstrating historical rarity in stability. More notably, the group of players whose holding costs are between $92,000 and $97,000 is performing unusually robustly, showing no signs of selling despite market fluctuations. In past cycles, the formation of new support levels often coincided with the exit of losing players, but the current steadfast attitude of losing holders is quite rare. This phenomenon reflects the strong confidence of BTC players in future prospects, which may lay the groundwork for a market rebound.
April 19 to 20 will be a turning point for Bitcoin prices. $86,000 is the key resistance level in the short term. If BTC can break through and stabilize above this level for more than 24 hours, it is very likely to trigger an upward trend, aiming for higher price points. On the contrary, if it cannot stabilize at $86,000, the price may drop to the support range of $74,500 to $80,000. The market usually remains calm during holidays, but unexpected events may lead to fluctuations.
