Institutional funds return to the battlefield, ETF inflows rebound strongly.
After a brief capital outflow on Wednesday, the Bitcoin ETF market quickly rebounded, restoring strong capital inflows, indicating that institutional investors' confidence in the market has not wavered. Notably, BlackRock's IBIT saw a single-day net inflow of $80.96 million on Thursday, setting a recent inflow record, with cumulative net inflows approaching $40 billion.
Fidelity's FBTC also contributed $25.9 million in inflows, with total inflows reaching $11.28 billion. This wave of capital returning releases a strong signal: institutions' views on Bitcoin's long-term price are becoming more resolute.
Futures enthusiasm surges, open contracts approach $55 billion
Not only is the spot market warming up, but the derivatives market is also bustling. Although Bitcoin's price has only increased by 0.30%, the number of open futures contracts surged by 5%, surpassing $54.9 billion, indicating that a large amount of new capital is being deployed. The establishment of new positions not only represents an increase in speculative enthusiasm but may also signal an early ambush for the start of a new market cycle.
The options market is heating up for bullish positions, but financing rates release bearish signals.
In terms of options, traders' strong demand for call options shows that bets on future price increases are still ongoing. At the same time, the financing rates in the futures market have quietly turned negative (-0.0006%), suggesting increased demand for shorting.
This divergence indicates a split in internal market sentiment; on one side, institutions and bullish funds are increasing their positions, while on the other, short-term traders are preparing to fight against downside risks.
Institutional bulls vs. bears, who will prevail in the end?
The inflow of funds into ETFs is providing solid bottom support for Bitcoin. The activity in futures and options indicates that market sentiment has not cooled; instead, it is at a critical point of brewing change. However, the decline in financing rates warns us that short-term shorts have not exited, and the market may not be smooth sailing.
Summary: Confidence is recovering, but the calm before the storm is not over yet.
The current Bitcoin market is in a delicate stage of intertwining bulls and bears. Institutional confidence is returning, injecting positive momentum into the medium- to long-term trend; however, the negative financing rates and short-term volatility suggest that the market may still experience fluctuations and false breakouts.
Investors need to remain calm and go with the flow, without being blinded by temporary enthusiasm. The real market may be hidden after the next peak in inflows.
