ETF inflows have plummeted, and the sentiment appears 'superficially pessimistic.'
Last week, the Bitcoin spot ETF recorded only $15.85 million in net inflows, an improvement from the previous week's capital flight of over $713 million, but this is the lowest weekly inflow level since early 2025. The overall market style still tends towards conservatism, with bullish sentiment clearly slowing.
Institutional investors are becoming more cautious, mainly influenced by the escalating global trade tensions. Major economies are tightening policies and retaliatory measures are frequent, leading capital to tend towards observation rather than aggressive entry during turbulent times.
The derivatives market is releasing complex signals.
Despite the BTC spot price rising 3% in the past 24 hours, the open interest in the futures market has decreased by 2%. This indicates that traders are more inclined to close positions rather than increase them, lacking confidence in a short-term rebound.
The rising demand for put options further indicates that the market is preparing for potential corrections. Overall sentiment appears to be bearish.
However, the positive funding rate reveals that bulls are still secretly making moves.
Surprisingly, despite the surface sentiment being bearish, the funding rate for BTC remains positive (0.0052%). This indicates that bulls are still willing to pay a premium for their positions, and there is still a force betting on a rise in the market.
With ETF inflows slowing, futures positions decreasing, and options being bearish, yet the funding rate remains positive, this 'surface coolness but underlying heat' structure may indicate that the main players have not truly exited but are quietly lurking in the process of repositioning.
Market appearances are not necessarily real; the true direction may be brewing.
The underperformance of ETF funds is not entirely a bearish signal but may represent a consolidation phase before the market starts to rally. The current market appears cautious but is actually polarized, with fierce long-short battles.
When sentiment is pessimistic, inflows are reduced, and shorts are prevalent, yet capital remains positive, it is often the 'calm before the storm.' The true direction may have already been quietly decided.
